Belief in the Jewish religion

Hello, let’s assume that I start from the premise that there is a God who created the world, why is belief in the Jewish religion and its commandments as it is formulated today (there are disputes, but in the end there is a basis that everyone agrees on) more logical than believing in it? And I’ll elaborate a little more. Let’s assume that I believe that the story of the Exodus happened with a certain high probability, then I believe that God gave us the Torah with a certain high probability, then I believe that the accepted interpretation of the Torah is correct with a high probability, etc. In the end, even if each of them is correct with a high probability, then when things are built on top of each other, the probability drops significantly. If, for example, the probability of each is 90% and I have 10 such beliefs, their probability together is 0.34=10^0.9, which is already not such a high probability. Then maybe it’s worth going back to the less likely side right now but the more likely when you look at all the consequences it entails, which is perhaps not believing in the Jewish religion. I would appreciate an answer on the matter, I haven’t seen anyone talking about it. Thank you very much.