Iron Dome – an incredible success or a hoax?

Thanks for the quick response

A few comments:

1. Regarding the matter, it is unlikely that this is a lie, as it will eventually be revealed - just pointing out that history is full of such precedents. We still remember that the Patriot from the Gulf War was also praised as an amazing success, and I think today it is a consensus that it was useless

2. Regarding the number of missiles fired – First, we have no idea how many were actually fired (relying on an IDF spokesman and the like is not really serious), and secondly – We see quite a bit of damage to property (less so to life, since most of us are protected) so intuitively it seems that the defense is quite porous

3. I am not clear about the issue of seeing the interceptions … I also saw with my own eyes quite a few Tamir missiles take off and explode after a few seconds – But how can we conclude from this that the explosion destroyed or neutralized a ballistic rocket in flight? Has anyone filmed such an event, the moment of impact? I don't know

4. The big money issue is indeed essential – But isn't it a bit strange that after a decade of operational activity there are still no customers for the system that is amazingly effective? According to Shefer and his team, there is not even a single customer

5. More on the money issue – Shefer admits that he offered a much cheaper and more effective alternative, and his offer was rejected. But according to him – The hundreds of billions invested in the missile industry contribute to the livelihood of weapons companies and their associates, so that the economic interest is secondary

6. I have not yet seen any professional reference to the body of Shefer's claims – Apart from interviews with several insiders who say he is wrong but due to maintaining secrecy and withholding knowledge from the enemy they are not allowed to say what he is wrong about (a very convenient claim…)

7. General – Until recently, I had no reason to doubt the establishment's reports about the success of the wonderful system. It's because, following the terrible "pandemic of the century," my mind has opened up a bit to more critical thinking 🙂

Why do you listen to him more than just another person? He doesn't have any inside information, he's just watching the intercepts just like you. By the way, he seems offended that they didn't take the model of his interceptor missiles. Maybe that's the reason for his claims.

Reply to Yishi

You probably didn't check – This is a person from within the system, a missile scientist who was involved in the Israeli missile industry for decades and won the Israel Defense Prize for developing an anti-aircraft missile

To dismiss his words with the claim that he was simply offended is evasion and ad hominem

I would appreciate a more substantive response

In order for the ‘Iron Dome’ not to be taken down, its bases must be equipped with the ’Trilogy’ books that prevent the dome from being taken down. Gaza must also be bombarded with Arabic translations of ‘Truth and Unstable’ that will prevent fundamentalism and encourage the creation of a ‘thin Muslim theology’ 🙂

That's it, Reza Dayhoda!

With regards, Shams Razel Alfangeri Elnej’Mavi

The debate is about the interception percentage. Is it the marketing nonsense they are sending us about a 90 percent success rate without any trace of evidence? Or is it more towards the 20-30 percent range?

In any case, there is no reason to think about a concrete number. It will always be based on mental confusion. Only Iron Dome operators and their close associates know it.

Response to the last post

This is more than a theoretical or academic debate

If Sheffer and his group are right and this is one big bluff (he claims that the interception percentage is zero) – then there is a crazy and ongoing fraud campaign here that has cost the taxpayer many billions and in return has given 0 real security, at most only a false sense of security

The question is whether we will continue to nod our heads obediently and buy every piece of data that the establishment showers on us with innocent faith or whether we will start asking the hard questions out loud

It's worth trying this in the next operation, every time Hamas announces at a certain time that it will fire a volley at Tel Aviv, give an order to disable Iron Dome in the Dan bloc and see if Baruch Mordechai

Response to Bill Gates

I don't understand what experiment you are suggesting

Let's say we do this and the result is a shower of missiles falling on the ground – What would be the conclusion, is Iron Dome really effective?

Maybe the result would be the same if Iron Dome were activated?

The other proposal for the experiment (Dr. Sheffer proposed this approximately)

We go to a defined desert test area the size of the Dan Bloc for the experiment, launch 100 rockets at it simultaneously (not guided rockets but primitive Qassam-style rockets) and activate an Iron Dome battery in an operational configuration

A literal replica of the real environment's test arena

We expect that 90 of the rockets will be intercepted (which means – explode in the air/turn into dust? That's also unclear)

We will know exactly how many rockets landed and how many did not, and of course we will take detailed photographs from all angles

What's wrong with such an experiment?

Response to Alex's response to what I wrote

From what I see, he was no longer part of the system when they developed the Iron Dome. (He worked at Rafael until 1996 while the development of the Iron Dome only started in 2007) So he is not part of the system. He himself says that he is just looking and drawing his conclusions, meaning that he is not claiming this from internal knowledge of the system/scientific claim against its effectiveness. In short, he drew a conclusion like any other person.

Incidentally, how can you say that he claims this because he is offended by Ad Homan? If you are the one who says Ad Homan, because you are only considering his opinion because of who he is (Dr. etc.) and not at all because of the body of the claim. After all, if it were just a weirdo saying this, you would not listen to him. The only reason you are considering this claim is because of the person who made it.

Reply to Yishi

He definitely makes scientific claims against the effectiveness – feel free to read his public posts on Facebook

And I don't know where you get your assumption that his position stems from being offended

I don't care what motivates him – I try to only address his claims

And by the way, there is a lot more information online from experts who dispute the success of the system, one example is attached

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2014/07/this-scientist-explains-why-israels-iron-dome-overrated/89132/

Now the question is whether to believe blindly in an establishment that tells us miracles and wonders but without a shred of objective proof or to cast doubt…

A casual viewing of some interception videos can clearly indicate that the fake theory is false. Why? Because sometimes you hear some kind of fall - a rocket that the system failed to intercept or was not designed to intercept - and it has a sound that is distinct from the other explosions heard from the sky. That is, even though dozens of rockets are fired, you may hear one or two falls at most (if at all). Inference to the best explanation: Iron Dome intercepted them.

If it were that simple, the questions asked would not arise.
The rockets are far from accurate. Most reach open areas. So if out of ten only one was accurate and flew towards a populated area and the Iron Dome failed to intercept it, then you will see one fall out of 10 launches. With 0 efficiency of the Iron Dome.

Reply to Copenhagen Interpretation

I hope you notice the weakness of your refutation yourself…

Mr. Schafer claims that there is also probably a crazy inflating of the reports of the number of rockets (after all, it serves both sides)

But how do you come to the conclusion that there are successful interceptions because we only heard the distinct sound of one fall?

Maybe we heard 10 self-explosions (idle explosions) of Iron Dome missiles, and the single rocket that reached the ground evaded them all and landed successfully??

At least I am left with a lot of doubts…

And Mr. Schafer continues to upload difficult materials on his Facebook page – not easy to read at all…
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100009935824110&comment_id=Y29tbWVudDo1NzE5OTY5Mjk1NzIzNDZfMjE2NzY3OTIwMzMzNzQzNg%3D%3D

Everyone knows that the Iron Dome missile costs between $150,000 and $250,000. And it is known that several Iron Dome missiles are sent on each rocket or missile. So, in rough calculations, we can say that since the beginning of using the dome, we have sent about 10,000 Dome missiles. That costs about a billion and a half dollars. Dr. Sheffer is asking for $30 million to test the credibility of his plan. In my opinion, it is worth throwing this amount away, even just to reject his claim. And if it turns out to be true, then our profit is very large. I think it is worth trying.