Probability and the Fate of the Gra

And if the Gra's fate is proven to be statistically correct, even though there is of course no physical law in this, will it be possible to rely on it legally? Both to clarify facts or to decide laws?

That's a different question. I don't think so. ‘You won't guess’.

Regarding laws, certainly not.

In the 25th of Shvat, 2nd of February

Lett. 3: Shalom Rav,

The matter of determining by casting lots is also mentioned in the Scriptures as one of the ways of divine intervention, as it is written: “In the bosom shall the lot be cast, and all his judgment shall be.” Casting lots by opening a holy book is mentioned in the Gemara: “Shmuel Bedik in the Book.” A collection of sources on the subject can be found in Rabbi Aviner’s response to “Opening the Holy Letters of the Lubavitcher Rebbe,” where he named several great men who were not all able to “take the name.” And even more so in matters of halakhah where it is said, ‘It is not in heaven’ and they are not cut off according to prophecy and the Holy Spirit’.

With greetings, Eliam Fish’ Werkheimer

In the playful atmosphere of ‘Snow Day’, following your question, I took your Bible, opened it at random, leafed through seven pages, seven verses and seven words, and came to the verse: ‘And those who know your name will trust in you, for you have not forsaken your precepts, O Lord’ (Psalms 9:11), and hence a hint that fate is one of the ways in which O Lord ’ will judge the world with justice’ But only when the matter is in the form of a 'lift to You, a lift in times of trouble,' and only when it is done by 'those who know Your name,' and 'those who seek You.'

Why is it so simple for both of you that we cannot rule according to this law (and Eliam reasoned that it is not in heaven). If fate works, then every such fate that succeeds is a revelation of the Blessed One with might and main, and He takes the trouble to issue a certain law by fate, and you say to Him, "No, sir, we will crush the words of the narrators, who are authorized to rule otherwise?" What seems like this great thing or what sounds like it? I interpret the legends of the sages who heard the Blessed One say this and that and yet they ruled otherwise in an exaggerated way, not to be guarded by unproven means according to fantasies, but if the means are proven and the Blessed One speaks to us face to face, then it is impossible under any circumstances that there is anything more certain than this, and by virtue of it we will ignore the current and certain demand.

I calculated it roughly (as I understood it):

Assuming that in each guess it could be any of them, and that each guess is completely random (because from the Bible you can take whatever you want, especially since I saw somewhere that you can keep browsing the lot) then the chance of hitting the first one is 1 in 12, in the second 1 in 11, etc.
As mentioned, the product comes out to be a very small number (2 times 10 is 9-).

This is a very small probability, but it is not fundamentally different from a sequence of 11 dice rolls that gave a 6, which is not really impressive when it happens once.

The question is whether this comparison is correct?

On the fourth day of the month, in the order that you will place before them,

Lat. 3:11; Peace be upon you,

If it was said in Moses, “And you stood here by me,” and the giving of the Torah to him continued all the days of his life, then after him the Torah was sealed and it was said, “These are the commandments, which a prophet is not permitted to renew from now on.” Even Moses’ great disciple, Joshua ben Nun, was instructed by his God to solve his questions in understanding the Torah by studying and studying the Torah, as it is written: “This book of the Torah shall not depart from your mouth, but you shall meditate on it day and night; for then you will make your way successful, and then you will have understanding.”

And the kindness that God has shown to His people is not to “make life easy” and to receive the understanding of the Torah through revelations from above, but rather “through hard work, through difficulties and excuses, through ease and severity, and through the enlightenment of the law” (as the Zohar says elsewhere). And the explanation is given in this way, because what comes from without remains external to the soul. But what is acquired through the immense attainment of “even the nights of my affliction and my kidneys” is assimilated and internalized in the soul of man, and the wisdom with which he labored becomes in his heart “the Torah of the day.”

And because of this, in matters of the capture of Achan and the division of the land, God spared From Joshua and his people the need to strain his mind in acquiring them and revealed them to him by fate, but the understanding of the wisdom of the Torah was commanded by God to be done precisely by ‘meditate on it day and night’, with infinite study and understanding.

And so after the stand on Mount Sinai where God showed his people His great fire and made His words heard from the fire – God commands Moses to set the judgments ‘before them’, not only to the supreme prophets, but before each and every one who is judged upon him to strain in order to understand with his mind the words of the Torah and its meanings so that the wisdom of God and His will may be his personal possession.

Best regards, Eliam Fishel Werkheimer [Translation: The Workroom Man]

On the one hand, there is a miraculous miracle before our eyes in which God reveals His mind (by determining the outcome of fate) and on the other hand, there is some kind of thought that we learn the most from the words of the sages and say not to pay attention to the words of God. There is a kind of saying here of the words of the rabbi and the words of the student, the words of those who hear.

In short, the rule that the law is not in heaven is weaker than an explicit teaching of heaven. Therefore, either this rule is invalid or it is interpreted to mean that it is impossible that heaven actually said it.

And how do you interpret that a prophet is not permitted to innovate anything from now on, and not in heaven? See my article on dreams (Mida Tova, end of 2007), where even if there is a reliable dream, it does not have halakhic status.
And indeed, the first in Eruvin found it difficult to follow Bat Kol to decide as Kabbalah against B’Sh. And according to your opinion, of course.

I don't interpret. If you believe in the reliability of the message, then these rules don't make sense and I don't believe anyone would even look at them. If you don't believe in the reliability of the message, then there's no need for these rules. And rules can't tell us the reliability of the message (because it's a factual opinion). And what is your method?

And to the rabbi, Shalom Rav,

The words of the rabbi are clear from the following: And meditate on it day and night, for then you will make your way successful, and then you will be wise. There are no shortcuts, but preach and go mad until you understand with your mind. In this way, the Torah will be internalized to you, not external. And as the Torah came, “If a matter is strange to you for judgment,” you should rise up and go up to the priest who will be in those days or to the judge, and let them tell you the matter of judgment.” Prophecy has a role in making decisions that depend on questions of future reality: To go to war or not? To appoint so-and-so as king or an unknown person? But the principles of the Torah and its laws are left to the interpretation of the sages and to be decided according to the majority opinion.

All the more so since fate, which is only a ‘small prophecy’ that gives an indication and not a definitive clarification, is also possible in the course of nature for the rare scenario to occur. In the event that there is a rare coincidence that appears as a hint from above against the sages' decision - it must be assumed that the sages will examine their decision again and again, but if they have examined and re-examined and found that their reasoning was correct - then it is their duty to respect the path of clarification that the Torah has outlined for them.

With blessings, Apoor

No interpretation. All these rules don't make sense and I don't believe anyone would do anything based on them if they truly believed in the credibility of the message.

My last message was sent by mistake.

In Shvat 25, 1982

The issue of “not in the air” is “halakhah and prophecy” has been discussed extensively in the words of Chazal and in the words of Rishonim Aharonim and scholars. Consult the articles in this category in the Asif Library. For example, Rabbi Avraham Yitzhak HaCohen Kook, “No Prophet May Invent Anything From Now On,” Rabbi Zephaniah Drori, “The Holy Spirit and the Establishment of Halakhah,” Rabbi Prof. Neriah Gotal, “Indeed, in the Air, in the Laws of the Temple and Its Sacred Places.” The essential exceptions of “Hilakhah of the Temple” In the halachic teachings of Rabbi Kook; Yaakov Bernstein, ‘Prophecy and Halacha – Halacha g”p. Prophecy”p.; Aviad Biller, ”Emet Maretz Tetzemch” or “Zedek Mishma Nechfiq”, Eran Nizri ‘Hachem Adif Men Navi’ and more. And give to the wise, and he will be wiser.

With greetings, Yaron Fishel Ordner

I don't understand what the point of the discussion is. And can a minister give an order to ignore the king's order?

To the Rabbi,
I don't know if you missed my response or if you didn't see the need to continue it.

I bring it up again in more detail at the end of the question:

“I calculated it roughly (as I understood it):

Assuming that in each guess it could be any of them, and that each guess is completely random (because in the Bible you can take whatever you want, especially since I saw somewhere that you can continue to browse the lot) then the chance of hitting the first one is 1 in 12, in the second one 1 in 11, etc.

As mentioned, the multiplication comes out to be a very small number (2 times 10 in -9).

This is a very small probability, but it is not fundamentally different from a sequence of 11 dice rolls that gave a 6, which is not really impressive when it happens once.

The question is whether this comparison is correct? In other words, is it correct to say that the chance that Rabbi Aryeh Levin will make the Gra”a's lot and correctly guess all the buried is the same as that Rabbi Aryeh Levin will declare that he is going to get a 6 in 11 throws and will actually do so?
Because Intuitively, the guess of the buried feels more impressive. The question is whether this is a false impression because of the content of the probability, which is significant, or is there indeed some probabilistic or reasonable aspect here that I am missing?

I didn't understand a word. I didn't see the criterion here: What would be considered a hit on the right name? How exactly do you do the lottery? How do you know which name the verse is referring to? What do you do when a verse comes out that doesn't give the name?
I highly doubt my ability to calculate anything.

Overall, you have proven that it is very likely that the story as told is a lie.

In the book "In Strength and Power" by Avi Rat about Rabbi Goren (highly recommended), it is told how he rescued the drivers and jumped over the landmines, etc., and he knew some of the dead personally from the synagogue, etc.
In short, some had to be identified and the families wanted the fate of the deceased, and he saw it as fiction.
But he agreed to the families' grief. Rabbi Aryeh Levin was forced to agree, signed, and the government approved.