Stopping the missile attack
Recently, a letter was published by a physics doctor (or so it is claimed) who worked at the Israel Aerospace Industries (or so it is claimed), in which he claims that the probability of the results as they appeared is equivalent to the probability of the Red Sea parting.
Beyond saying that this was a significant event and not at all obvious. Is it even possible to calculate such a thing? Is it statistically unlikely? There was a lot of preparation and vigilance here, and several hours of warning.
I have no objection in principle to recognizing miracles, but I tend to be skeptical about reports of them. Here too, the matter requires examination by experts, and I am definitely not one of them. But I will write my point of view.
I’ll start by saying that I know him, and he is indeed a doctor of physics. But it seems to me that he exaggerated the religious enthusiasm. The data that the IDF provided is inaccurate (99% interception and minor damage to one base). I saw that at least in the matter of the missiles, about a hundred were sent. Half of them failed to launch or fell on the way. Of the other half, about fifty, nine hit and damaged two air force bases in the Negev. That means about 80% interception. That’s about the percentage of the Iron Dome that we already know. It should be remembered that the range is very long and you have time to aim and prepare and make decisions, and even try a few times if you miss. There are also the Jordanians, the British and the Americans on the way, who also intercepted (at least as drones). And all of this cost us at least 5 billion shekels, much more than the Iranians. Beyond that, there were also damages, as mentioned. And all of this when we knew the timing in advance and prepared, and there weren’t that many in the entire barrage. Think about the conclusions regarding an attack that you have no advance warning of, and with a huge mass of missiles and submarines. It seems to me that the Air Force must draw conclusions quickly because it may suffer a fatal blow next time.
It’s certainly an impressive technological achievement, but while we yearn for good news and a sense of security and divine miracles, looking sober, I’m not that impressed.
By the way, as with Iron Dome, the lack of damage also prevents us from responding appropriately. Both because of global pressure and because of the feeling that we were not harmed. This could have been an opportunity, together with the powers, to eliminate the Aryan nucleus in a large and coordinated effort. That will probably no longer happen.
https://mikyab.net/%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA/%d7%91%d7%94%d7%9e%d7%a9%d7%9a-%d7%9c%d7%a9%d7%90%d7%9c%d7%94-%d7%a2%d7%9c-%d7%94%d7%98%d7%99%d7%9c%d7%99%d7%9d/
Does the rabbi have the doctor's original analysis?
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You wrote that you have no objection in principle to recognizing miracles, but how can we recognize miracles without having prophets who say that it is indeed a miracle?
Even if only we were to intercept 100% of the threats, with complete surprise, at low cost, it would still be possible to say that this is a rare event that happened naturally (and in general about any such ”miraculous” event) unless a true prophet says otherwise, right?
It is very difficult to recognize a miracle. But there are extreme situations that I will also recognize in a conference event. For example, when there is 100% interception only for Jews and there will be almost none for others. For this, there are statistical research tools that must be used.
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