Divine decree and free will

Hello Rabbi…
I recently read your book “The Science of Freedom.” There you bring up Maimonides’ question – why were the Egyptians punished for their actions, since God had already decreed that they would do so, and if they did, they would not have had a free choice. And you explained his answer there that God actually slightly tilted the souls of all the Egyptians toward the desire to enslave the people of Israel, so that although everyone had the freedom of choice, on the other hand, statistically there will be those who will decide to submit to this will.
But as far as I know, statistics are not something binding. That is, any statistical possibility can happen even if its probability is extremely low. So in this case, a situation could arise in which the Egyptian people decide not to enslave the people of Israel. And if so, that decree of God “and they shall enslave them and afflict them” is not a decree or a certain certainty, but merely a statistical estimate of what is probably going to happen. Is this really what you meant in your book, that Maimonides’ answer is not a decree but merely an estimate?