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Regarding Newcomb’s experiment described in the book The Science of Freedom

שו”תCategory: philosophyRegarding Newcomb’s experiment described in the book The Science of Freedom
asked 1 year ago

Hi, I recently finished reading your book “The Science of Freedom” and I really enjoyed it.
But, like a good Pole, there are some points I disagreed with. And I would love to hear your opinion. Especially about Newcomb’s experiment (page 150-154)
In the book it is presented as evidence that determinism is not possible, or at least determinism together with free choice. Because basically because there is a prophet who already knows what you will do, you do not have free choice. (Since your future is determined by his prophecy) and you expand the scope and say that because there is no right choice for a person with “will”, then a deterministic picture cannot exist either. But my argument is relevant even without the expansion.
I would like to disagree and say that from Newcomb’s experiment, no one can learn anything about free choice (or even about determinism), because the existence of the Prophet is a contradiction in terms due to Turing’s halting problem. That’s all. But to get to the exact problem, I will expand:
Because in mathematics and logic, we often use non-existent “monsters” to learn about what exists. For example, we say a lot about non-deterministic Turing machines even though they don’t exist in our world. (Although it can be symbolized , but then the runtime increases exponentially , and therefore such a “real” machine with all its benefits really doesn’t exist.)
But all this as long as there is no internal contradiction in the concept itself, no matter how far from reality it may be.
To reach a contradiction, we make 2 moves:
1] In our case, there are 2 people, one chooses and one predicts. And in my opinion, there is already a point for correction here. Because if we were to suppose that I were to bring a cricket that would choose according to day/night, then there is no paradox here at all and the immediate claim is that I brought someone too stupid as the chooser without the possibility of being a tool of capacity for free choice, and that does not say anything about the rest. And if so, why would the person choose? After all, the conclusion is about determinism as a whole. And if so, why is it not required that the chooser be as smart as possible so that the paradox can exist as long as it can exist in a deterministic world? If so, we would replace the person with a supercomputer with at least as many processors as the number of neurons in the person (impractical in our day, of course)
2] But, and here comes the second stage, because due to Turing’s “halting problem”, which explicitly applies to a supercomputer, no matter how powerful, we know that there is no program that knows for * any * other program whether it will halt. And further to that is Rice’s theorem , which claims that even any non-trivial property (like a box, for example) cannot be determined for * any * program.
And if you respond by bringing in a simple enough program, or by adding a rule for a case like a time limit, then we will be back to the first move, since you showed that that situation cannot accept free choice, but who said that a more general situation cannot accept free choice, and how would you conclude globally?
And in fact, I argued, from a certain level of automaton (known as Turing), there is no longer a prophet, and therefore the experiment cannot take place as Newcombe describes. Therefore, any conclusion about determinism and free choice, at least from this experiment, does not emerge (for or against).

Later in the chapter, you actually try to answer the contradiction and say that because “the information exists” from, for example, brain waves, therefore a prophet also exists in that deterministic world, but the “halting problem” actually claims the opposite. There is information that you will never know how to reach in advance. Neither from brain waves nor from the electricity in the processor. Because the problem is in predicting the algorithm itself, which is visible to everyone.

And more notes:

  • Humans are like Turing machines, but they have drawbacks like fatigue, and maybe brain waves that predict their inferiority, so I replaced them with a superprocessor to get to the contradiction faster.
  • The parable itself can still be used for other conclusions, such as in game theory, since the conclusion there reflects on how a person should choose, and not whether he fundamentally has a choice, since the prophet there could have a time machine. Which is irrelevant here.
  • Interestingly, no one addressed the problem I raise, and even Wikipedia ignored it despite talking about free choice in the Newcomb experiment here , but I still found 2 people online ( here and here ) who raised the same question as me… and at least there were no answers there that solved the problem, so I have some confidence that I’m not talking nonsense and wasting your time.

What do you think?

Thanks in advance, June.
 
 


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0 Answers
מיכי Staff answered 2 months ago
I’m not sure I understand the argument. If you show that there is no such prophet, that is itself proof against determinism. You have proven that there is no possibility of an entity that knows everything in advance (including God). This is exactly my argument. Furthermore, a Turing machine has limitations by its very definition. Therefore, when you prove that there is no Turing machine that can do something, you have not proven that it cannot be done. Perhaps there is a more sophisticated machine that can do it (a quantum computer?). Here the proof does not rely on the nature of the machine (the prophet), so it is more general. You assume that humans are like Turing machines. That’s the Church-Turing thesis. I disagree with it.

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יוני וס replied 1 year ago

1] I'll try to clarify. In Newcomb's time, this prophet could have had many mechanisms for guessing that were simply difficult for us to implement. Going back in time, reading brain waves, etc. But over time we discovered that these things are undefined and/or take infinite time and/or contradict each other.

If it's for going back in time as a matter of course, which creates a paradox of “I killed my grandfather”. And if, as I wrote above, a prophet who is a Turing machine cannot predict other Turing machines. (I agree, if God is a Turing machine then He also cannot predict)

And if so, it is impossible to simply bring the concept of “prophet” and create a problem with it about determinism, because who said that the conclusion correctly followed from the case/proof by negation and no internal contradiction crept in (like, for example, if we were to bring a prophet who goes back in time)? Which is very similar to the jokes that show how to prove that “1=2”.. only that along the way they assumed that it is permissible to divide by 0. Because a contradiction is like a virus, infecting every claim and conclusion.

And so my argument is the simple question: Who is the prophet? And how did he predict definitively and without contradictions? And if we assume that he could, then let's assume that the voter also succeeded and chose the box with the million… (Sketch on the subject: https://youtu.be/Yv0oPXMIOyc?t=32)

And if there is no such prophet because it cannot be defined and not because of our case, then there is no contradiction with free choice. At least not from this thought experiment. Since the contradiction with free choice stemmed from the actions and ability of the prophet.

2] Regarding more powerful automata that might solve the “halting problem”, then everything I know is not viable. And therefore irrelevant (since there is a place where determinism can exist and they do not, like here on Earth). And regarding quantum and statistical Turing, as I understand it, Avi Wigderson received a prize for showing that under certain assumptions (which seem reasonable) the complexities of BQP/BPP/PP problems are equal to P, and therefore here too we are in the same situation. Of course, if in the end a more powerful automaton is discovered and exists, then my argument will fall and the paradox will return.

3] And I am very interested in the fact that you think that humans are not Turing, are we less, more, or actually different due to something else in your opinion?

מיכי Staff replied 1 year ago

You're repeating the same thing. I replied.
We're not calculative in my opinion. More.

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