skepticism
I heard a question from a skeptic who apparently more often than not turns out that reality is not real than it is real (and the same is true for many other claims based on intuition). The claim is this: we see reality, one interpretation of reality that is real, there are countless other interpretations that explain our vision, so the chance that the intuitive interpretation is correct is one in countless interpretations. I tried to answer him that according to him, intuition cannot be trusted, and probabilistic calculations cannot be trusted either, since it originates from intuition, but I am not sure about that. I would love to know what you think. Thank you very much.
This calculation assumes that all options are equally weighted. But they are not.
Apparently, when there is no way to calculate, then all possibilities will receive equal weight. Another question: Does calculating probability originate from intuition? Thank you very much.
Not true. Let's assume for the sake of discussion that there are two possibilities: one that my eyes are deceiving me and one that they are not. It seems clear to me that they are not deceiving me, and therefore the possibilities are not equal.
So-and-so, sorry for the intrusion,
I think the opposite, we'll go your way, so think that all skeptical possibilities have the same weight, there are an infinite number of such possibilities. If so, the likelihood of each possibility is quite negligible.
On the other hand, there is the possibility that you are aligned with the world and all that, if you believe in it then you increase its weight. So in a simple calculation even if you give that possibility only a tenth of a percent of trust, relative to the other possibilities it will easily take.
Anyway, I think,
that you need to see it differently, all the skeptical possibilities you are not aware of their weight at all and therefore have no way of assessing their weight, only the possibility that you are aligned you are aware of and can assess its weight. In other words, you need to distinguish between logical possibility “and feasibility” and epistemic feasibility.
Happy Holidays.
Thank you very much, assuming that my intuition may be misleading me, is the probability I wrote correct? I am satisfied that you can calculate each possibility on its own and then the chance is 1 in many, and you can also look at it this way, either my evidence is right or not, and then it is 2 possibilities? In general, what is the value of such an inaccurate probability calculation that due to lack of knowledge I assume that each possibility has equal weight? Last question: Does probability originate from intuition?
If your intuition deceives you, there's no point in bothering with probabilities. They're based on it too. Every application of any way of thinking to the world is a product of intuition. In any case, the probability of ignorance is a rather dubious tool.
You didn't answer the first part of the question about how to look at things:
You can calculate each possibility on its own and then the chance is 1 in many, and you can also look at it this way, either my evidence is right or it is not, and then it's 2 possibilities.
I answered. There is no calculation here and there is nothing to talk about in terms of probabilities. There is a lack of information.
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