16 Manaʻo e pili ana i ka "Simplification in Simple Statistical Forecasts (Column 473)"

  1. Ma ke ʻano o ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻana a Bibi, manaʻo ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa he hoʻokahi ka nui, inā hiki loa (a hiki paha) aia kekahi mau mea hoihoi, a no laila ma ka liʻiliʻi loa. Ma nā ʻōlelo kūpono he mea liʻiliʻi ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa, ʻo ka mea i ʻōlelo ʻia e ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻo ia ka helu ʻauhau maikaʻi loa (ma ke ʻano o ka loaʻa kālā o ka mokuʻāina), he ʻōlelo hoʻopaʻapaʻa koʻikoʻi. ʻO ka nīnau koʻikoʻi he aha kēlā pākēneka maikaʻi loa, hiki ke ʻano like ʻole mai kekahi ʻoihana a i kekahi a me ke kūlana macroeconomic.
    I ka pōkole, ʻo ka liʻiliʻi o ka ʻike i loko o ke kŘkohu (nā manaʻo pololei e pili ana i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo) ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka pono.

    1. ʻO kēia ka hoʻohewa nāwaliwali loa. ʻAʻole loa ʻoiaʻiʻo, no ka mea, ʻoi aku ka nui o hoʻokahi wale nō, a ma kēlā me kēia māla e hōʻike ana ʻaʻole pono ka hoʻonui ʻauhau e hoʻonui i ka loaʻa kālā. ʻO kēia ke kumu hoʻopaʻapaʻa.
      ʻAʻole wau ʻae ʻae ʻaʻole kōkua iki ka ʻike. Eia kekahi, aia kahi kaʻina hana paʻakikī i loaʻa ka ʻoi loa.

  2. ʻAʻole au i heluhelu, akā hoʻokahi ʻōlelo i hopu i koʻu maka. Ua kākau ʻoe i kou manaʻo inā ʻaʻohe ʻike e pili ana i ke kaʻina hana a laila hiki ʻole ke kamaʻilio e pili ana i ke kūpono. Ma ke kamaʻilio ʻana i kāu mea i ʻōlelo ai ma ka hopena no nā mea like me nā kūkākūkā e pili ana i ka Gd a me ka creationism, ma ke kumuhana o ka hōʻoia ʻana i ke ʻano kūʻokoʻa o ka ʻōnaehana kānāwai, manaʻo wau ua ʻōlelo ʻoe e hiki ke koi ʻia ke ʻano me ka ʻole o ka ʻike e pili ana i ke kaʻina hana. He aha ka ʻokoʻa?

    1. Ke ʻike ʻole ʻia ke kaʻina hana iā mākou akā aia kekahi kaʻina ma laila, ʻaʻohe kumu o ka manaʻo ʻana he ʻano like ka māhele ʻana. E like me kaʻu i ʻōlelo ai, ʻo ka hapa nui loa kēia ʻaʻole wau e kūkulu ma luna o ka nui. Akā, i ka physiological theological manaʻo aia ka manaʻo o ka hoʻokumu ʻana o ka honua i kahi hihia piha mai ka mea ʻole loa (inā ʻaʻole e mau ka nīnau i ka mea i hana ai ma mua). Ma ia kūlana, ʻo ka manaʻo o ka puʻunaue like ʻole ka mea kūpono a kūpono. Pono ka puunaue like ole i ke kumu. Ma ka hailona o na uhane, ina paha i hana ia e ke Akua a i ole ia, aia kekahi kumu, a pono e ike kekahi i keia kumu e olelo aku ai no ia mea.

      1. Paʻakikī au akā e hoʻāʻo wau e ʻohi hou aʻe. He mea paʻakikī iaʻu ke ʻike i ka ʻokoʻa ma waena o ka puʻunaue like ʻole a me ka puʻunaue like ʻole, akā e waiho wau i kēlā (no ka mea he manaʻo pono e noʻonoʻo ʻia) a nīnau i kahi ʻē aʻe - me he mea lā he mahele like ʻole (kūpono no ka noʻonoʻo symmetry) ʻoi aku ka kūikawā ma mua o kekahi mahele like ʻole.
        Eia kekahi, a ke manaʻolana nei au ʻaʻole wau i kuhi hewa a me ka hoʻopilikia ʻana, me he mea lā i ka mea o ka hapa nui o ka pāpā ʻana aia kekahi mau mīkini no ka lako.

        1. pololei. No laila, manaʻo ʻia ka puʻunaue like ʻole me ka ʻole o nā ʻike ʻē aʻe. ʻO ia ka mea maʻalahi loa a me ka symmetrical.
          E pili ana i ka halakhah i nā kapu, kēlā me kēia hihia ma kona pono pono'ī. Akā, hele kekahi ma hope o ka noʻonoʻo helu helu akā ma hope o nā lula kānāwai-halakhic (e like me ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i ka maʻalahi.

            1. ʻAʻole mākou e hoʻopalapala i ka palaoa. Na ka puunaue ana i ka hailona. ʻO ka mahele likeʻole ka mea maʻalahi a no laila ua manaʻoʻia. E like me ka humuhumu ʻana i nā kiko ma kahi laina pololei ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o ka humuhumu ʻana iā lākou ma kahi sine, ʻoiai hiki iā ʻoe ke ʻōlelo ʻo ka laina pololei ka mea maʻalahi a no laila ka mea kūikawā.

              1. Me he mea lā mai kahi i hele mai ai ʻoe ma kahi laina pololei no ka mea ʻike ʻoe aia kahi laina maʻalahi a kūikawā e humuhumu e pili ana i ka mea a laila no laila ʻaʻole paha kēia he coincidence. Akā ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke manaʻo i ka mea mua e hāʻule kekahi ʻano ma kahi laina pololei me ka ʻole o kahi heleuma. Maopopo iaʻu ke ʻōlelo nei ʻoe he priori ka noʻonoʻo maʻalahi, akā pehea e hōʻike ai ka laina.
                (Ua noʻonoʻo wau ma mua o ka ʻōlelo mua e pili ana i ka loteri hoʻoili a ʻaʻole i loaʻa iaʻu a ke kahaha nei au)

                1. ʻAʻole maopopo iaʻu i ke ʻano o ke kūkākūkā. ʻAʻole paha ʻoe e ʻae inā ʻaʻole i loaʻa nā ʻike ʻē aʻe e like paha ka māhele like ʻana? No ke aha e hoʻololi ai i waena o nā hopena? Inā ʻaʻole ʻike kekahi e pili ana i nā ʻokoʻa ma waena o nā hualoaʻa ma ka hakahaka hāpana, ʻoi aku ka nui o ke kaumaha o lākou a pau. ʻAʻole maopopo iaʻu ka mea e hoʻohui ai.

                  1. Akā ke manaʻo nei ʻoe ʻoiai inā ʻaʻole i loaʻa ka ʻike, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻohele like ʻia i nā ʻuhane. A ua wehewehe ʻoe no ka mea aia kahi kaʻina hana ʻike ʻole, a aia wale nō i ka puka ʻana o ka pau ʻole i manaʻo ʻia e puka mai nā ʻōnaehana o nā kānāwai i kahi mahele like ʻole a no laila ʻo ke ʻano kūʻokoʻa o ka ʻōnaehana he hōʻoia o ka hana ʻana.
                    ʻAʻohe oʻu manaʻo paʻa, a aia paha he ʻokoʻa ma waena o nā hanana (inā helu kekahi i ka manaʻolana e manaʻo paha kekahi i ka puʻunaue like ʻole) a ma hope o ka hana ʻana (a laila paʻakikī loa ka manaʻo pono e pono ia. ua hana ʻia ma kahi mahele like ʻole). A ʻo MM ma kāu ʻano i nīnau aku ai au a inā pau ka luhi.

                    1. pololei. A wehewehe au i ka mahele. Ma ke kaʻina hana ua like nā hihia hoʻolaha. Ma ke kaʻina koho ʻaʻohe kumu e manaʻo pono ai. A ua hoʻohui au, ʻo ia paha kaʻu e manaʻo ai me ka ʻole o ka ʻike, akā ʻaʻole wau e kūkulu i kekahi mea ma luna.
                      Me he mea lā iaʻu ua pau kā mākou.

                    2. Hiki iā ʻoe ke hoʻomaopopo mai iaʻu inā maopopo iaʻu i ka hōʻoia ʻana mai ka mea ʻole (me ka manaʻo he hiki, no ka hōʻoia ʻana i ka Petah Tikva kūʻokoʻa i ka cosmology) ke ʻōlelo nei ʻoe e loaʻa kahi mahele like ʻole (a ʻo kēia kahi koi koʻikoʻi no ka hōʻoiaʻiʻo), ʻaʻole he kuhiakau o ka ʻike ʻole.

  3. ʻO ka mea hoʻoponopono hope

    Inā manaʻo ka manaʻo ʻaʻole mākou kūikawā, a laila ʻaʻole ia he mea nui inā ʻo ka mea e hiki mai ana iā mākou no ka manawa mua a i ʻole i kēia manawa, me ka likelika o 50% a i ʻole ka probability o 1 no ka trillion, e like me nā lula helu a i ʻole. iā lākou. ʻAʻole loli iki kēia mau mea a pau. Ma hope o nā mea a pau, ʻaʻole mākou kūikawā.

    No laila ʻaʻole pono kēia kūkākūkā a pau.

Waiho i ka manaʻo