חדש באתר: NotebookLM עם כל תכני הרב מיכאל אברהם

Q&A: Your Assessment of the Deal

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Originally published:
This is an English translation (via GPT-5.4). Read the original Hebrew version.

Your Assessment of the Deal

Question

Hello, you wrote several times that under no circumstances would Hamas agree to return all the hostages, since that is the last card it has in its hands. On one occasion you even called a deal in which all the hostages return a delusion of the “hostage-religion believers.”
Was that a mistaken assessment? If not, why not? If so, how do you explain the level of unequivocal certainty in your statements, which turned out to be fundamentally mistaken? 

Answer

Hamas is indeed not returning them as part of a deal, contrary to the ridiculous claims that this deal could have been made already a year ago. It is now surrendering because of the military pressure and the achievements. I wrote more than once that the only sensible policy is to continue the war and win until surrender. In a surrender, of course, we will receive only some of the hostages alive, but that is the only option short of our own surrender. That is apparently what Bibi did, with almost unbelievable capabilities.
Although regarding Trump’s deal now, until two days ago I did not believe it would actually happen, and here I was apparently proven wrong (though let’s wait for the actual implementation). I did not assess that Hamas had already reached the stage of surrender, and in that I was mistaken. But what happened actually fits very well with what I wrote.

Discussion on Answer

Michi (2025-10-09)

By the way, all this happened despite the efforts of the hostage-religion believers to sabotage the deal in order to bring down Bibi. My heart, my heart goes out to them. They are in deep mourning that the hostages are returning. Now we’ll already hear from them the predictable tunes with which they will console themselves: 1. Trump forced this on Bibi. 2. It happened only thanks to us. 3. If not for Bibi, it could have happened a year ago. Nonsense, of course. But one should not hold a person accountable in his time of grief.

D (2025-10-09)

Either he surrendered, or you have no idea what the deal actually is or what was promised to him behind the scenes..

Michi (2025-10-09)

Indeed, that is always true. No one knows what is going on behind the scenes.

Moshe (2025-10-09)

Let me say first that I’m right-wing, probably opposed to the deal, and not a great admirer of hostage religion.

I passed by Hostages Square this morning.
They were not in mourning.
(Though of course, in their view Bibi only got in the way, and Trump and they did everything.)

Yigal (2025-10-09)

It physically hurts me to see you writing like this, that they’re in deep mourning and so on. At least qualify it and say this is true of some of the people? Surely some of them were simply deeply convinced that they must be brought back at any cost, regardless of any effect on the identity of the prime minister.

Li (2025-10-09)

Indeed, opening champagne is a well-known sign of mourning

Nitzan Alon (2025-10-09)

The honorable rabbi is determined not to let any fact interfere with the theory, much less trouble himself to check the facts before formulating the theory

Yossi (2025-10-12)

There’s a bit of a contradiction here — in their surrender we would get only some of the hostages, but here they have surrendered according to your approach and are bringing back all of them

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