Q&A: Saar Wilf Builds the Machine of Absolute Truth: “Zadorov Is Innocent”
Saar Wilf Builds the Machine of Absolute Truth: “Zadorov Is Innocent”
Question
https://www.themarker.com/markerweek/.premium-1.4511218
I thought this might interest you
Answer
I’ve already read interviews with him, and I wasn’t all that impressed.
It seems to me this is the article I already read.
I discussed this on the site in column 145 and in the article on the representativeness fallacy in Jewish law, when I mentioned the fishermen’s net (that you need a dense net in order to catch small fish). With his fundamental claims I agree, that many people fail because of probabilistic fallacies. But his certainty on all these issues, and his trust in the Rothkleyim system and in the quantitative results it produces, seem very questionable to me.
By the way, it seems to me that he misses something in his claim about the low probability of murder. When someone is put on trial, there are some indications regarding him, and that itself significantly increases the prior probability that he committed the murder. For example, he was in the area. The effect of this is dramatic, as I explained in the article, and he ignores it.