Halakhic Examples of Errors in the Use of Conditional Probability (Column 145)

Technical question: why are the latest columns in PDF format? In my opinion, it's much less convenient.

Because of the formulas.

In the paragraph “The Majority in a Court: The Question,” on the second line from the end: the probability of a judge making a mistake is 1-p
Why? Shouldn’t that be his probability of being correct?

Good point. I’ll correct it (just the reverse: P is the probability of being correct).

How did you arrive at 3% of the women? I got about 5%.

It’s possible I made a mistake. It was something I worked out quickly in my head.

Halakhah does not really take probabilistic considerations into account in cases of doubt; rather, it uses rules like a double doubt as opposed to a single doubt, whatever separated is presumed to have come from the majority, presumption, etc. Is this an area that should change in light of the way we think about doubts?

I think those rules apply where you don’t have a clear calculation. When there is a calculation, it is more reasonable to follow it. A state of doubt is an even state, 50-50, and when there is a calculation showing that this is not 50-50, one should follow the majority (except in places where we do not follow the majority).