Q&A: “Improbable” versus “Rare and Unique”
“Improbable” versus “Rare and Unique”
Question
Hello Honorable Rabbi,
Your view is that specifically an “improbable” event that brought us to the current state, such as evolution, is evidence for a planner somehow standing behind everything.
On the other hand, the Rabbi acknowledges that the history of the Jewish people is very rare and unique, yet one simply cannot infer from it any general divine providence.
If so, a number of questions arise:
- What is the difference between “improbable” and “very unique and rare”? I would appreciate as clear and detailed an answer as possible. (For example: improbable = 0.000000000001, and rare and unique = 0.1).
- After the Rabbi explains the technical difference between “improbable” and “rare and unique,” I would be glad for a specific explanation of evolution as “improbable” as opposed to the survival of the Jewish people as “rare and unique.” It is important to emphasize that atheists do not see the current state reached by evolution as “improbable,” but rather as one state (not special at all) out of a number of possible states. On the other hand, religious people do see the survival of the Jewish people (and the land remaining empty) as an “improbable” event (and therefore one that of course requires a planner). So I would be glad to examine the Rabbi’s approach in comparison to other approaches.
I would appreciate the Rabbi’s answers.
Best regards, Ehud
Answer
Hello Ehud.
I have already explained several times in the past the difference between improbable and unique. An ordinary result of rolling a die a hundred times is unique but probable (after all, something has to come out). But if you get 6 a hundred times, that is also improbable.
The laws of nature are in the category of getting 6 a hundred times, and therefore they require an explanation (God). But the history of the Jewish people is unique like some other ordinary outcome of dice. There are many peoples and many circumstances, and it is not such a great wonder that one people would have unusual history. Especially since a large part of it has a cultural explanation (the character and values of this people) even without the direct involvement of a divine hand.
Discussion on Answer
The two possibilities are identical. The complexity of the law can be seen through the complexity of the situations it produces. I discussed this in my book on evolution and in an article, and also in the third lecture in The First Cause.
Ehud, take a look at the long debate here on the site in Column 144 🙂
When the Rabbi writes, “The laws of nature are in the category of getting 6 a hundred times,” what exactly does he mean?
Is it that the laws themselves exist in their present form that is equivalent to getting 6 a hundred times, or that the laws led us to the current state, which is equivalent to getting 6 a hundred times?
Thanks