Q&A: Prophecy, Knowledge, and Free Choice
Prophecy, Knowledge, and Free Choice
Question
I read your columns about knowledge and free choice, and I understood that basically you came to the conclusion that there probably is no real question here, and God does not know our choices, because He limited Himself. I was very impressed by the intellectual courage to say something that intuitively occurs to everyone, but nobody is really willing to say outright.
I have a few questions about this conclusion and about prophecy.
1. First of all, it would seem proper to distinguish between the prophecies in the Torah (according to the school that claims these are prophecies) and the prophecies in the Prophets and Writings. Because the Torah, according to our faith, is the foundation of belief and not the Prophets, and even if we were to discover that parts there are not logical, that would not undermine faith itself.
So how exactly does the idea that God does not know our choices fit with prophecy about the future itself? And even more surprising, it seems that these prophecies really were fulfilled to a considerable extent, even though that was hardly the most expected thing in the world, to put it mildly…
(In the Torah these are general prophecies and not about particulars, and in the Prophets too the overwhelming majority are like that, so this question also applies to those prophecies in the Prophets.)
2. In the Prophets there are a few prophecies specifically about individuals. For example, about King Josiah, who would carry out a religious reform, and Cyrus, who would end the exile…
That is even harder, since it seemingly requires Josiah and Cyrus to make certain choices, and they in fact did make them, so how exactly did God not know the choice?
Answer
First, the Shelah already wrote this. So I don’t have a monopoly on courage.
- I didn’t understand the claim. There is no distinction here, because this is a conceptual argument. The question is not who has the ability to know the future, in which case you could distinguish between the Holy One, blessed be He, and prophets. My claim is that knowledge of the future is an oxymoron. In that respect, I don’t see what difference it makes where the prophecy in question appears. As for the fact that prophecies are fulfilled, I explained that in two ways as well: 1. The prophecy states what is expected to happen if nothing unusual occurs. After all, we too can predict the behavior of a person with free choice, based on psychological considerations. It is not an exact prediction, but it is borne out in many cases. 2. There are situations in which the Holy One, blessed be He, takes control into His own hands and makes sure that the prophecies are fulfilled. That involves taking away our freedom of choice, because you cannot give us free choice and also ensure that the outcome will occur.
- As above.
Discussion on Answer
“A prophet prophesies only what is fitting to be.” Not necessarily what will in fact be. Tosafot on Yevamot 50a, regarding the prophecy about Hezekiah, see there.
Interesting. By the way, Gersonides also says something in that spirit. But I still didn’t fully understand your view, Rabbi Michi.
1. Are you saying that God does not know the future insofar as it depends on free choice at all? Or that He does know, based on the choices in the present, but it simply does not have to be realized in practice (prophecy)?
2. Does this mean that prophecies that are fulfilled (without getting into the question of whether they are vague or not) do not constitute support for faith? (Obviously on their own they do not prove anything definitive.)
3. Does every prophecy not have to be fulfilled? Or only what depends on human choices? Because if no prophecy has to be fulfilled, that would mean that belief in the resurrection of the dead is not a fundamental principle of faith and does not have to happen, contrary to Maimonides. (That is something that depends purely on God—whether to revive the dead—so it is not hard to believe that such prophecies must be fulfilled.)
1. You repeated the same thing as though they were two different options.
2. Why not?
3. Even with regard to human actions, the Holy One, blessed be He, can dictate the fulfillment of the prophecy if He decides to do so. In any case, regarding deterministic things, there is no reason to say that He does not know.
1. It’s not the same thing. One option was that God does not know the future at all, like human beings.
The second option is that He does know the future possibilities in accordance with the choices. Which of these options do you accept?
2. Because what is impressive about a fulfilled prophecy is that God has the ability to direct history, and only He is capable of foreseeing such things, not just some ordinary person. And if by definition God does not know the future, then everything impressive here basically collapses, because God too limited Himself, and with respect to knowledge of the future He is supposedly on a par with human beings.
3. Understood.
4. A new question. Let’s say I accept your approach that as a starting point God does not know the future. Then we need to enter another discussion: how are we to relate to the prophecies of the Hebrew Bible (Tanakh)? I understood from your various writings that you think they are estimates and not things that are necessarily bound to happen. How exactly can one estimate such unpredictable things hundreds and thousands of years ahead? If He does not know the future, that seems impossible.
What is the point of all these prophecies if they are not really prophecies?
What do you do with personal prophecies like Josiah and Cyrus? Are those also estimates?
1. It’s still the same thing. What depends on free choice, He does not know. Everything else, He does.
2. I didn’t understand a thing. I explained that He knows what is not a matter of choice, and what is a matter of choice He estimates better than all of us, but there is no certainty. Now draw the conclusions.
4. Exactly as I wrote. There are prophecies that the Holy One, blessed be He, enforces (by taking away our freedom of choice), and there are others that He does not.
I think I got it.
So you are basically claiming that there are 2 types of “prophecies”:
1. Possible estimates. Of course God has tools far better than ours for estimating the future, because He knows all the data at every moment.
2. Prophecies that are impossible to predict, like the ingathering of the exiles. In those, God apparently removes free choice from some people in order for that process to happen.
Question: what about prophecies of the second type, where it is clear that this is a process God is managing, that nevertheless were not fulfilled? Are there such cases? And if so, what is the reason for that?
I didn’t understand the question. If they must be fulfilled, then how were they not fulfilled? And if they were not fulfilled, how do I know they are of the second type? Are you sure you understand what you’re asking?
I meant prophecies that speak, for example, about the days of the Second Temple, and they were not fulfilled and their time has clearly passed, and it is also fairly clear that they are of the second type of prophecies that must be fulfilled, where God intends to intervene. I don’t know whether such prophecies exist. That’s why I’m asking you.
And also, you know they are of the second type from the fact that at the point in time when the prophecy was given, the probability of the prophecy seemed blatantly unreasonable as an estimate, even for someone who knows all the data.
?
This isn’t all that related, but you mentioned it and I’d be glad to know: if there is free choice, how can we say—and be right (most of the time)—about what will happen in the future?
You put it nicely: most of the time (and even that is not certain). That is estimation, not knowledge. See, for example, this article of mine: https://mikyab.net/%d7%9e%d7%90%d7%9e%d7%a8%d7%99%d7%9d/%d7%9e%d7%91%d7%98-%d7%a9%d7%99%d7%98%d7%aa%d7%99-%d7%a2%d7%9c-%d7%97%d7%95%d7%a4%d7%a9-%d7%94%d7%a8%d7%a6%d7%95%d7%9f/
I agree that it’s an estimate, but still—I’ll give an example for the question. Let’s say if I go to work I earn money, but my mother is sick and if necessary I would prefer to help her. Wouldn’t it then be irrelevant, in terms of the chances that I’ll go to work, what my salary is? If there is free choice, seemingly it comes from somewhere else—from desires and temptations—and it’s not clear to me how they influence things.
I do not understand what you want, and I have a feeling that you don’t understand it either. I referred you to the article and answered everything.
2. Dispersion in exile and the ingathering of the exiles is a reasonable prediction? Not really reasonable, considering the rise and fall of empires much greater than us.