The return of the Jewish people to its land is an exceptional story in the history of nations; why don’t you see in it the hand of God? Especially since the prophets prophesied that the Jewish people would return to its land.

A solar eclipse is also an exceptional event in the history of the world. And there are cosmological events that are far rarer. The question of whether something is a miracle has nothing to do with how rare it is, but with whether it has a natural explanation or not.
The prophets’ prophecy is also not proof, because through their prophecy they created this situation. When we live within an ethos created by those prophecies, together with commandments about settling the Land and so on, it is entirely possible that we would be stirred and decide to return.

And couldn’t the splitting of the sea and the ten plagues also have a natural explanation?

I don’t think so.

As far as I know, a number of theories have been proposed by various scientists regarding the splitting of the Red Sea.

That really doesn’t matter. You asked whether there is a situation in which I could determine that something is a miracle. I answered yes. If I’m standing by the sea and it suddenly splits in two (or into twelve), that’s a miracle. It doesn’t matter whether that is really what happened back then or not. That is a situation that I would define as a miracle. Speculations by scientists who invent facts and then invent explanations for them are not relevant to our discussion.

In my opinion it is relevant, because if there is a natural explanation for what happened then, and yet the Torah presents it as providence, then presumably it is coming to teach us that this should be our way of looking at the world.

What should be? To conclude that something is a miracle when you have no basis for it? Good luck with that. (Of course, that way you can say about every event that it’s a miracle.)

All of life is a miracle, as the ancient parable would have it: “Life is like coffee—either it’s black or mud, or it’s a miracle” 🙂 But there is a hidden miracle that operates within natural scenarios, and there is an open miracle in which the natural order is openly violated.

Thus the Book of Esther is full of events that do not contradict the laws of nature. It is natural for the king to become angry at Vashti for defying his command and remove her, just as the opposite scenario is also natural—that his love for his wife should awaken even though she violates the law and comes to the king “though it was not according to the law.” It is natural that Haman should come to the king demanding that Mordecai be hanged, just as it is natural that on that very night the king’s sleep should be disturbed and he should remember that Mordecai saved his life.

Every stage in the process is a natural scenario, but the fact that when one possibility is needed it happens, and when needed the opposite scenario happens—this points to a process directed by the hand of God,

Best regards,
Shimshi Safra