Question

Recently I told someone that the chance his ballot will actually affect the election is one divided by the number of votes needed for a seat. In the 2020 election that was 37,000, so the chance of having an effect was a little more than two-and-a-half thousandths of a percent—in other words, not a practical chance.
But he argued back that this probability should be multiplied by the state budget that we want to influence. The latest state budget stood at 480 billion, so the expected value of the gamble—voting versus not voting—is almost 13 million shekels, definitely worth it.
Of course, the expected value is much lower, because in the end the lion’s share of the budget is not really up for discussion and is not a matter of dispute. But a large part of it definitely is, and that is what I can influence (how much will be added to education and welfare, how much will be taken from defense, etc.).
What does the Rabbi say about this argument?