"Unlikely" versus "rare and unique"

Greetings to the esteemed Rabbi,
The Rabbi's opinion is that an " unlikely " event that brought us to our current situation, such as evolution , is evidence of a planner who is somehow behind everything.
On the other hand, the rabbi admits that the history of the Jewish people is very rare and unique, but it is absolutely impossible to deduce from it a general providence of God.
So, several questions arise:

1. What is the difference between "unlikely" and "unique and very rare". I would appreciate an answer that is as clear and detailed as possible. (For example, unlikely = 0.000000000001. and rare and unique = 0.1).
2. After the rabbi explained the technical difference between "unlikely" and "rare and unique," I would be happy to have a specific explanation for evolution as "unlikely" versus the survival of the Jewish people as "rare and unique." It is important to emphasize that atheists do not see the current state that evolution has reached as "unlikely," but rather as one state (which is not at all special) out of several possible states. On the other hand, religious people actually see the survival of the Jewish people (and the land remaining empty) as an "unlikely" event (and therefore requiring a planner, of course). If so, I would be happy to test the rabbi's method against other methods.

I would appreciate the answers, Your Honor.
Best regards, Ehud