Q&A: Stopping the Missile Attack
Stopping the Missile Attack
Question
Recently, a letter has been circulating that was sent by a PhD in physics (at least that’s what is claimed) who worked in the aerospace industry (again, that’s what is claimed), in which he argues that the probability of the results as they appeared is comparable to the probability of the splitting of the Red Sea.
Beyond saying that this was a significant event and by no means obvious at all, is it even possible to calculate such a thing? Is it really that statistically unlikely? There was a lot of preparation, readiness, and several hours of warning.
Answer
I have no principled objection to recognizing miracles, but I tend to be skeptical about reports of them. Here too, the matter requires examination by experts, and I’m really not one. But I’ll write my perspective.
Let me start by saying that I know him, and he really is a PhD in physics. But it seems to me that he got carried away by religious enthusiasm. The data the IDF released are not precise (99% interception and only minor damage to one base). I saw that at least regarding the missiles, about a hundred were launched. Half of them failed at launch or fell along the way. Of the other half, about fifty, nine hit and caused damage to two air force bases in the Negev. That means roughly 80% interception. That’s about the same rate we already know from Iron Dome. One should remember that the range is very long, so you have time to aim, prepare, and make decisions, and even to try several times if you missed. Along the way there were also the Jordanians, the British, and the Americans, who also intercepted things (at least UAVs). And all this cost us at least 5 billion shekels, much more than it cost the Iranians. Beyond that, there was also damage, as noted. And all this was when we knew the timing in advance and prepared, and there also weren’t all that many in the overall barrage. Think about the conclusions regarding an attack where you have no prior warning, and with an enormous mass of missiles and UAVs. It seems to me that the air force has to draw conclusions quickly, because next time it may take a devastating blow.
This is definitely an impressive technological achievement, but despite our longing for good news, a sense of security, and divine miracles, from a sober perspective I’m not all that impressed.
By the way, as with Iron Dome, the absence of damage also makes it harder for us to respond properly. Both because of global pressure and because of the feeling that we weren’t really hurt. This could have been an opportunity, together with the great powers, to eliminate the Aryan nuclear program in a large, coordinated strike. That probably already won’t happen.
Discussion on Answer
Does the Rabbi have the doctor’s original analysis?
No.
You wrote that you have no principled objection to recognizing miracles, but how can one recognize miracles if we don’t have prophets to tell us that it really is a miracle?
Even if only we had intercepted 100% of the threats, with complete surprise and at low cost, it still would be possible to say that this was a rare event that happened naturally (and in general the same goes for any such “miraculous” event), unless a true prophet says otherwise, no?
In principle it is very hard to recognize a miracle. But there are extreme situations in which even I would recognize an event as miraculous. For example, if there were 100% interception only for Jews, while for others there were almost none at all. For that we have statistical research tools that should be used.
https://mikyab.net/%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%AA/%d7%91%d7%94%d7%9e%d7%a9%d7%9a-%d7%9c%d7%a9%d7%90%d7%9c%d7%94-%d7%a2%d7%9c-%d7%94%d7%98%d7%99%d7%9C%d7%99%d7%9D/