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Q&A: Is such a thing (which I know firsthand actually happened) statistically more unlikely than predicting lottery results in advance three times in a row?

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Originally published:
This is an English translation (via GPT-5.4). Read the original Hebrew version.

Is such a thing (which I know firsthand actually happened) statistically more unlikely than predicting lottery results in advance three times in a row?

Question

https://www.kikar.co.il/haredim-news/the-amazing-note-of-the-inuka

Answer

I don’t know.

Discussion on Answer

Oren (2025-05-07)

I saw in this link some contradictions to the story in the article:

https://x.com/moshepargod/status/1919135492982915234

The birth time was described as 12:55 and not 10:55.
In the video it was mentioned that the note was lost, although I didn’t understand who lost it.

Zvi (2025-05-07)

I have a question about whether “I don’t know” means that this is so impressive that we simply cannot quantify the scale of the event and assign it probabilities and calculations, because of the depth of the concept and the limitations of the observer; or whether “I don’t know” contains a kind of educational statement, or even something a bit cynical: I don’t have time to deal with these uninteresting things, it’s a shame to waste my precious time and yours, and especially that of the intelligent readers of this blog. And if I’m right about the second possibility, how would you explain the dozens of episodes here on the site and on YouTube that deal with “metaphysics,” which, because of their sheer length (especially in the generation of instantness and hyper-effectiveness that characterizes much of the public nowadays), I didn’t have the patience to stay in front of the screen for more than an hour of the first episode. In any case, this is a much, much more impressive example than your favorite example with your parents, when you came back from yeshiva and told them about the pigeons that cured jaundice, and your parents chuckled at your supposedly “superstitious beliefs.”
Here: a. there is almost a spirit that defeated science (the opinion of all the doctors, backed by medical documents) — more precisely, changed the laws of nature, something not recognized even in the quantum world; b. it not only changed nature (from Down syndrome to normal), but determined the topography of what would happen — meaning, contrary to all the forecasts (of the specialist doctor in charge of surgeries) and the wishes of the parents, it was determined by “the righteous decrees, etc.” and controls nature, that there would be surgery instead of syndrome; c. and all this was predicted in advance, both the hour of the surgery and the day of birth, exactly as written beforehand on a note long before it happened.

Zvi (2025-05-07)

As for Oren’s comment, which I only just saw now, look again at the interview video and you’ll see that what you wrote here “never happened and was never created, not even as a parable” — and in plain language, “neither bears nor flies.”

Oren (2025-05-07)

Zvi, I looked again at the video you sent, and you can see on the note that it says 12:55, not 10:55.

Zvi (2025-05-07)

I suggest that the two of us go to the parent and you’ll see the note with your own eyes, not through the perhaps blurry screen of yours, and then your mind will be put at ease.

David S. (2025-05-08)

Zvi,
As for your inquiry, you asked a specific question — “is this rarer than predicting three lottery results in a row” — and they answered you, “I don’t know.”

If you “know firsthand that it happened,” then what exactly are you looking for here — confirmation?
What fascinates me is how such abilities show up דווקא in tiny events, with no broad importance. Every day, unfortunately, babies with Down syndrome are born. Wouldn’t it be better to predict the lottery results and donate equipment to hospitals, or save collapsing yeshivas? Maybe it could be done on a regular basis. More generally, why is the blood of the crying father redder than that of the father who didn’t cry? Why not heal masses of people? Why not send cancer patients to the wonder-child before chemo? In general, I thought people with Down syndrome were holy and had a special mission — too bad to give that up. (Okay, maybe I drifted a bit from the point, but I just had to add a little cynicism.)
So of course there’s an excuse for every question. But this is just the tip of the iceberg of reasons for the skepticism of someone who sees an article like this on Kikar HaShabbat.
For you, of course, this isn’t a question. It sounds like you have certainty. Are you the father?

David S. (2025-05-08)

A line from the Chafetz Chaim that I like to quote:
“Most people lie, and everyone exaggerates.”

I don’t know a person — including myself — who doesn’t exaggerate from time to time, not always consciously, when telling a story. To round off a few corners, leave out what reduces the drama, and add a little or make slight changes when the story calls for it. Because there’s nothing like a good story. That’s how we are.

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