Q&A: Ahead of the Elections – A Diplomatic Upset
Ahead of the Elections – A Diplomatic Upset
Question
Hello Rabbi,
In the previous elections, the Rabbi said several times that from the diplomatic perspective it makes no difference who will be prime minister; they will all do the same thing (whatever reality forces on them).
Hasn’t this year proved otherwise, after the peace agreements with Arab states? Seemingly, this is a different approach to the diplomatic sphere, one that hadn’t been taken until now: trying to make peace with various Arab states and gradually influence things from the outside inward.
And one more somewhat cheeky question (sorry…): doesn’t this undermine the Rabbi’s way of drawing political conclusions? Looking back, it’s doubtful whether such steps would have been possible without Netanyahu because of his interpersonal skills (and likewise with the vaccines), so in the end it really does matter to take the candidate’s personal abilities into account.
Answer
Good question. I don’t know.
First, I’m not sure this is such a great success, nor that it changes much. These are distant countries, and peace with them is far from being significant. Moreover, in the first crisis we have here in the region, I assume these peace agreements will blow up in our faces, just as keeps happening all the time with Egypt and Jordan. True, here we did not pay a significant price, unlike with Jordan and Egypt, so there isn’t much risk here—but also not a very significant gain.
Second, I’m really not sure this has to do with Bibi’s abilities, rather than with new circumstances in the Arab states (after the Arab Spring and so on), and mainly with his ties to Trump and the chance event (fortunate from his point of view and miserable from the point of view of the Americans and most of the rest of the world) that brought about Trump’s election. He bet on the horse that happened to win, and that didn’t happen because of skill but because the alternative (the Democrats) is completely against him. Now Biden has been elected, and I assume it will be harder for him to carry out policy. Here we may perhaps see his abilities. Under a Democratic administration, there is perhaps a greater chance for people from the Left and Center here to advance matters.
Third, in any case, it is quite clear that this is not connected to policy but to connections and abilities. Therefore it could not have been known in advance what or who would succeed, and in which direction. My claim was not that nothing new could happen, but that whatever happens would be the result of pressures, circumstances, and constraints, and not of the personalities playing on the field. Under the circumstances of Trump, I see no necessity that a different prime minister of ours would not have reached the same results, and perhaps even more.
And fourth, anyone who makes forecasts fails. The only person who doesn’t fail is someone who never tried to make any prediction at all. Therefore, a failure like this, even if I accept that it is a failure (and I’m not at all sure of that, as above), does not necessarily mean anything. Ben-Gurion already said that all experts are experts in what was, not in what will be.
Fifth, in areas where it matters more who holds the office—that is, not in foreign policy matters but in domestic matters—our situation is a disaster. The man is harmful and corrupt and self-indulgent, and nothing interests him except Bibi. Therefore I continue to stick to my position not to decide whom to vote for based on foreign policy (which he doesn’t have, and which also doesn’t really matter), but based on the domestic agenda. On internal matters, the agenda and the coalition you build do have influence.
But of course, everyone acts according to his own forecasts (each man plays his own tune). I’m not forcing anyone to listen to me or act according to my advice.
Discussion on Answer
It is absolutely, absolutely certain that the vaccines are thanks to our socialist health-fund system, which was founded thanks to Mapai, as my great teacher Yair Golan has already expounded at length.
With God’s help, he will continue to enlighten us with his correct path, which instills in us the objective feeling that all the bad things come because Bibi is still prime minister, whereas all the good things that somehow remain in our hands are thanks to the old Mapai and thanks to Meretz, which has been sitting in the opposition for many years.
And you too, Meir, with God’s help will become a devotee of Yair.
The question whether successes and failures stem from circumstances or from abilities is important, and there is room to discuss it. But in order for self-indulgence, or even corruption (to the extent that it exists), to be a consideration, one has to show that it has a negative effect on running the state. Not only has that not happened to the best of my knowledge, but even according to the indictments this is personal corruption and not an influence on policy decisions. The submarine affair could have changed the picture, but as is known, Netanyahu was not charged.
All corruption is bad, but in the voting booth I’m not choosing my next teacher and rabbi, nor a groom for my daughter. I’m choosing the person who will fulfill the function of running the state better than the alternatives. Similar to your remarks on education: if the alternatives were similar, it would make sense to look at personal integrity. Right now, for someone who has concluded that the reason for Netanyahu’s successes is his abilities, it is hard for me to see how the indictments are relevant.
Thank you for the detailed answer,
actually, Bibi presents it as some kind of orderly plan that he had already been planning since the Middle Ages, but maybe it really is because of the circumstances.
On the issue of the vaccines, I think there’s a consensus that his social skills helped quite a bit, but really we couldn’t have predicted the need for that in the previous elections.