Q&A: Statistical Errors and Crib Death
Statistical Errors and Crib Death
Question
Hello Rabbi,
I believe this case will interest you, because it speaks almost point-for-point about things you explained regarding the incorrect use of statistics.
A conviction from two decades ago based on a mistaken interpretation: https://news.walla.co.il/item/54756
A pardon today, not on the basis of understanding the error but on the basis of a scientific discovery: https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/hj00ohrsun
Bottom line: a mother who lost her children sat in prison for 20 years as a child murderer because of a mistaken interpretation.
Answer
Very interesting. Of course it immediately brings to mind the Roy Meadow case in Britain, which I use to illustrate this issue (Munchausen by proxy).
But here, specifically, it seems that this was not a statistical error in the same way as there. After all, here there was evidence from the diaries; four infants is not like two (the probability here of independent accidental death really is tiny, far less than with two). There were also her statements (she practiced her version for court), and so on. Therefore, probabilistically there may indeed have been a proper basis for suspicion here. What changed things were the new scientific findings, which show that there were medical reasons for the deaths, and that changes the picture.
It seems to me that unlike Roy Meadow, where there was also an error in the reasoning itself, the only error here on the statistical plane was ignoring the assumption that there could be a connection/dependence between the cases (such as a genetic connection). In other words, these were not independent cases, and therefore the probability of their occurrence is not the product of the probabilities. That error was also present with Meadow, but as noted, in his case there were additional errors (accidental crib death of two children is a probability that is possible if you examine it across all mothers in Britain or the world. Four already really is not).
By the way, although she did sit in prison on the basis of a mistaken interpretation (or lack of scientific information), even now there is no certainty that she did not murder them. The probability of that becomes such that conviction is no longer possible (not beyond a reasonable doubt). Still, I do not think the suspicion against her is negligible.
If we say that she murdered them, then in effect we are saying that she had two extremely rare things: a gene that causes crib death (also in her husband), and also character traits that make infant murder possible. Since we know the first exists in her, that provides an explanation for the events, and there is no reason to assume the second also exists. It is on the border of the impossible.