Q&A: Pascal’s Wager
Originally published:
This is an English translation (via GPT-5.4). Read the original Hebrew version.
Pascal’s Wager
Question
Following the series on doubt and statistics and all the concepts we learned, I wanted to ask the following question:
Pascal argues that either God exists or He doesn’t, so it’s 50/50, and it’s preferable to gain the World to Come on the basis of 50%.
But the fact that there are two options doesn’t mean their distribution is equal!?! For example, either tomorrow I’ll find a thousand euros under my bed or I won’t. That’s true, and still it doesn’t mean there’s a 50% chance that I’ll find them.
Right?
Answer
Pascal was not talking about fifty percent. On the contrary, his argument works even if the probability is negligible. See the column that deals with Pascal’s Wager.