Question

Is there any value in listening to (professional) commentators in the media?
 
Advice and insights from experts and the military-professional echelon have already been discussed here.
 
I mean in the sense of people who predict, based on the available data, what will probably happen next. For up-to-date informational-entertainment purposes.
(Half the airtime is devoted to this.)
For example: a former general on Channel 12 News says: the IDF will finish taking Rafah and then invade Lebanon.
 
I’m starting from the assumption that these aren’t absolute statements, and it has become clear countless times that commentators are wrong.
Still, I ask myself: what’s the alternative?
The alternative is lack of information.
Meaning, I’m an ordinary person, and I have too many scenarios in my head about what will happen next.
Then the commentator comes along and defines things, narrows them down. That is: his claim is that this specific thing is what will happen.
Even if there’s a good chance he’s wrong,
it’s still relatively better-quality information than what I have in hand.
Let’s say that in my non-professional head I have 7 possibilities for the future of the war, most of them ridiculous—because of my ignorance in the field.
The commentator picks one. And even if there’s a 40% chance he’s wrong, I still prefer that over vagueness or my excess of options.
 
But what happens when reality changes?
The war in Gaza takes a lot of turns. He isn’t capable of predicting them—or more precisely, the turns generate many possibilities. So by definition he can’t narrow it down to one option.
And if so, what advantage does he have over me? I also have lots of scenarios popping up in my head.
At most, he can help me rule out the possibility of aliens invading and joining the Nukhba fighters,
but for that you don’t need a commentator, you just need not to be stupid.
 
What value does his commentary have?
If it defines one or two options, that’s an error with a high probability (!)—it’s only momentarily true, because reality keeps changing. When it comes to talking about the future, these are empty words.
And if he brings several options, I can do that too, as long as I have reasonably current information.
Anyone can say: either there will be a war in Lebanon, or there will be an agreement, or there will be a hostage deal, or the government will fall, etc.