Q&A: Certainty and Uncertainty Regarding a Hostage Deal
Originally published:
This is an English translation (via GPT-5.4). Read the original Hebrew version.
Certainty and Uncertainty Regarding a Hostage Deal
Question
I just heard Avi Sagi argue that a hostage deal should be carried out on the grounds of “certainty versus uncertainty”—that certainty prevails. The hostages will certainly die if we do not release them, whereas the future is open and depends on our preparedness. What do you think of this position?
Answer
My view on this position is laid out in several places. Search for columns about the hostages: 607, 627. By the way, this is not a case of certainty versus uncertainty. Rather, it is a case of: uncertainty does not override certainty. When there is an established presumption of possession, the ruling is that certainty does not prevail.