Bayes Medicine and Law
Let's say there's a pandemic. And if you get infected with it, you'll die. Unless you're undergoing surgery, which has an 80% chance of success and a 20% chance of failure, and if that happens, you'll die. To know if you've been infected, there's a 99% reliable test (that is, 1% false positive and vice versa 1% false negative).
Now, a patient came to me who tested positive for the epidemic.
What should I recommend to him? Should he have the surgery or not?
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0 Answers
There is not enough data here. What is the prevalence of the epidemic in the population? Is there a way to improve the accuracy of the test by using symptoms that are typical of this disease? Usually yes.
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