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Probability and the Fate of the Gra

שו"תProbability and the Fate of the Gra
שאל לפני 4 שנים

There is a well-known story (also appearing in the press at the time) about Rabbi Aryeh Levin, who used the Gra's fate to identify the fallen of the HaLah convoy when they were brought for burial on Mount Herzl.
There is a protocol of fate in his handwriting.
 
I recently heard a claim that DNA tests were performed in modern times and the identities of the deceased were verified. Is there anything in this (assuming it is true – I have not yet found any definitive confirmation) to prove that the Gra's fate is actually in him?
I did the math and found that the probability of guessing 12 spaces correctly is about 9-^10*2. That's not far off from the chance of getting 11 sixes in consecutive dice rolls – not very likely but not crazy.
Is it correct to make such a comparison? Or does the fact that the guesses were made to order make a difference?
(I add that the protocol and the description of the case indicate that there was some prior knowledge about some of the spaces, which perhaps makes the guesses more informed and therefore more reasonable)


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מיכי צוות ענה לפני 4 שנים
I don't know the details of exactly how this was done, how they defined arriving at the right name (after all, there are lots of degrees of freedom), and how they used the prior knowledge. Therefore, I also don't know how you did the calculation. But assuming you have all the information in front of you and you made the correct calculation and the probability is very low, then maybe there's something real in it.

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