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Question in statistics

שו"תQuestion in statistics
שאל לפני 9 שנים

Peace be upon you, Rabbi Michi.
As a complete math nerd [unfortunately], she asked me a question.
I know a girl who has dated dozens of guys, probably over 40. And she claims there has never been a guy she thought met her requirements in terms of character traits, etc., with whom she could build a home.
All the guys she met were from the Haredi sector, and with guys who on paper would be a good fit for her [talent, views, etc.] and let's say the pool of guys who were a good fit on paper was 10,000 guys to consider.
Is it possible to statistically calculate her chances of finding someone who is right for her from this pool? Is it like flipping a coin and then, and so on, when time after time the coin lands on the same side, this shows that the two sides are not of equal weight or some other reason, and therefore here too we learn that if she does not change her positions, the chances of finding a guy who is exactly right for her [when she insists on not giving up and being flexible] are almost zero, [so can you calculate for me what her chances are (40 times from a pool of 10,000)]. Or in psychology and emotions, every case is like a new story and there is no way to statistically calculate the chances? And if so, does this mean that in psychology it is impossible to bring statistical data at all.
Regards


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מיכי צוות ענה לפני 9 שנים
R. D. Shalom. The question is not well defined on a mathematical level because you need to define what it means to be someone who is "right for her." Assuming that there is only one in 10,000 that she would agree to meet, you can calculate the probability that he was one of the 40 she met. But you and I do not have such information, so it is impossible to do the calculation. If you want to do the calculation you have to give me more data. For example, how many out of 10,000 would she be willing to marry if she met them. I suppose you cannot know that. One thing is clear: she should examine herself carefully if she rejected 40 proposals that seemed reasonable on the surface. You don't have to be a mathematician to do that. 🙂

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