Sources for the Hereafter – Accuracy

I looked at the questions I asked about the theory of retribution and saw that they could be refined.
My question is this: In your opinion, is there a greater chance of the doctrine of retribution existing than of its non-existence?
If yes/no – why?
If we cannot know the answer, why are the sources of the Sages not sufficient to determine what is more likely and to consider their tradition as closer to the truth?
Thank you in advance.