Supervision, driving and sampling

Hello Rabbi. I would be happy to ask you a question about your method, if you allow me.
Your approach is that reality is not consistent with the principle of reward and punishment, therefore there is no private (active) supervision.
We don't see religious people getting sick less, etc.
And although we see in studies that prayers are beneficial, this does not represent a method of honoring the Torah.
In light of the above, it can be said that there is no supervision.
Now for the apologetics –
The Ramchal brings two methods of leadership.
1. In this world, the righteous will inevitably have worse things to do because he receives the torment in this world and his reward is reserved for the world to come. On the other hand, the wicked receives his reward here for his few commandments and his punishment for his sins awaits him in the world to come.
The situation is balanced thanks to the prayers and justifications of the righteous, whose situation should supposedly have gotten much worse for them, since their lives are supposed to be extremely bitter, but thanks to their prayers they sweeten the judgments, and then we see a situation where, overall, the righteous and the wicked appear to be in roughly the same state in the world. (See Derech Hashem, Da'at Tevonut)

2. The leadership of the Mazla – the leadership that works mainly in our time (the Ramchal spoke about his time and I assume that nothing has changed since then) is a leadership that essentially means that all of humanity, in all its details, operates according to a meticulous plan and that the choice is sometimes "free" and sometimes one's behavior and situation are derived from heaven in the secret of this leadership without regard to reward or punishment.
"Why is it necessary to complete creation according to its essence… since its concern is nothing but decree, and does not depend on man's choice and merit"
"It is impossible for any person to stand on the threshold of the things that God, the Blessed One, does with him, because He, the Blessed One, sometimes acts in the way of reward and punishment and sometimes in the way of luck… In short, there are two ways: the way of reward and punishment and the way of luck; and the Lord, blessed be He, uses them according to what He knows to be good for His world."
It has been found that part of a person's behavior is free and part is determined to bring him to a certain state according to plan.
Some of the situations that will happen to him will be by natural chance and will necessarily allow for completely free choice… and some will be by this luck as mentioned… and will not allow for free choice but rather a limited or null one.
In such a situation, it is difficult for me to know why Rabbi Michai's method (although it is very logical) necessarily requires his method?
According to the Rabbi's view, there are situations of reward only in the next world, and here everything works according to the laws of nature, and man moves and wanders between them freely, choosing his own path.
This method also has a certain problem. If, for example, a certain person reaches a level where he is worthy of leading the people or even as a prophet, and then someone comes to murder him or encounters a predatory animal that kills him, it is found that the person did not fulfill what was incumbent upon him.
Or a person who was killed in his youth before reaching adulthood, is found not to have fulfilled a commandment, and for what will he receive a reward? For his untimely death?