Q&A: Taking Clear Minority Positions
Taking Clear Minority Positions
Question
Points of convergence in a two-party system. Positions on a given issue range between 0 and 1. Let us hypothetically assume that people are distributed uniformly along the axis of positions (and not in a normal distribution around the middle). The left is between zero and one-half, and the right between one-half and one. A small deviation, and one of the parties wins power (say, the left). It then deliberates internally and reaches agreement around its own midpoint (one-quarter), and that becomes policy. If in the next term the other party wins (the right), then it will implement policy around its own midpoint (three-quarters). The result is that policy swings sharply between one-quarter and three-quarters, and the majority of the public will always oppose the policy in force (and therefore the center of the public will be motivated to change its vote). What do you think of this description? Is there a problem here? Do you know of a name for this phenomenon, or a more general formulation of it?
Answer
Interesting. I think this is basically correct, but of course it is a very simplified description of reality. First, we do not have a two-party politics. It is a coalition of many parties that average one another out. They also are not really located next to one another on all axes. Beyond that, even in your description, policy does not necessarily settle around 1/4 or 3/4. That depends on who leads the bloc, not on the average. Beyond that, there are also many issues on the table, so opposition to government decisions on one issue does not necessarily imply opposition on the other issues.
The model you propose got me thinking about a related question. My wife asked me why we keep ending up each time with a fifty-fifty split. How is it that a coalition of 80 Knesset members never forms—that is, that there is parity between the blocs? The same is true in the United States. Perhaps the mechanism you describe can offer an explanation. When there is a drift to one side, public disappointment returns us to the middle course. But as I said, I am not sure about the connection between your model and reality.