Q&A: How to Make Decisions Rationally
How to Make Decisions Rationally
Question
Hello and blessings!
Many times, when I try to reach a decision in an informed way and lay out pros and cons for each side, etc., I notice that deep down I have a personal pull toward a certain side, and that probably also affects the way I weigh the pros and cons unconsciously. How can one neutralize the influence of that personal inclination? After all, even if we try to be objective, as long as I feel that I have this personal stake, how can I trust my own judgment?
Answer
You need to distinguish between a bias and an inclination. If you have an inclination toward a certain side, that is perfectly fine. Your intuition is pointing you in that direction. So naturally you weigh the different sides accordingly. That is completely fine. In the final analysis, once there are two sides, the result always depends on the weighing, and that weighing is done intuitively. But if you have a bias in a certain direction, that means that direction is more convenient for you, and that really is something to be careful about.
How do you distinguish between an inclination and a bias? I don’t have a clear criterion. It’s just worth checking whether there really is one side that is more comfortable for you, or whether you have an interest in that direction. If so, there is reason to suspect bias. a0
Discussion on Answer
Consult others who don’t have a personal stake.
After I spent a good hour being astonished that after I had explained exactly this difference, someone asks what the difference is, I thought to myself that perhaps I should judge favorably and say that maybe the question is about terminology. That is, the questioner is wondering why I chose the terms “bias” and “inclination,” whose meanings seemingly are the same. But that too is obvious. A bias is caused by something else, whereas an inclination is mine, coming from within myself. In the end, I do not know how to judge this question favorably.
You can judge the questioner favorably if you assume that your answer includes a mistaken worldview.
That is, that in truth bias and inclination are one and the same.
How so?
What you call “an inclination is mine, coming from within myself” is actually the result of something else that tilted that same “self” to have this bias. Then it doesn’t really come “from within myself”; it only appears that way because one is unaware of the real causes.
What is the difference between bias and inclination?