Answer

I’ll copy what I wrote to you in the email.
This isn’t a question that can be exhausted in an email. Briefly, I would say that in principle, smart people can make mistakes, since there are biases, impulses, interests, and so on. There are smart people in every direction, so relying on smart people won’t get you anywhere. And this is what was meant by: the matter depends on no one but me. You need to seriously weigh the arguments and the different positions and form your own view. We have no other tool.
One thing must be remembered: there is no certainty, nor can there be certainty, about anything. Therefore, if you are expecting certainty, then you need to grow up and free yourself from that childish aspiration. A person has to make decisions according to the best of his understanding, and the possibility of error always exists. The Holy One, blessed be He, does not come with excessive demands upon His creatures, and therefore if you did your best, no one should have any claims against you.
All the best and good luck,