Q&A: The Chances That the Religion I’m Born Into Is the Right One
The Chances That the Religion I’m Born Into Is the Right One
Question
Hello Rabbi,
This is a question I’ve been thinking about lately. It mixes a bit of philosophy, a bit of psychology, and a bit of mathematics, I suppose—three subjects I really don’t understand at all—so I’d be happy to hear your opinion.
It’s clear to me that no matter how much a person tries to investigate beliefs in a purely rational way, he is still significantly influenced by the environment he was born into and by the beliefs his parents hold. I assume you would agree with that too. In addition, I know that there are very many different religions around the world—many of them with far more believers than Judaism. So I wonder: what are the chances that you would be born into precisely the correct religion? Especially if it is a small religion like Judaism—assuming you reached the conclusion that this is the true religion—isn’t it more likely that psychological influences caused you to choose this path than that a miracle happened and you were born into exactly the right religion?
I’m aware that this is not an argument against the Jewish religion itself (there’s probably some name for the fallacy involved here), but I still don’t see why this doesn’t mean that Judaism should be placed last in terms of the likelihood that it is true (and in any case the proofs in its favor would also have to be much stronger than usual)…
Answer
The chances are the same as for any other religion, in proportion to the number of children born into each such faith. So on that basis, you would have to reject all beliefs. But that is a foolish argument. I do not assess the probability of something for which I have arguments for or against it. I examine the arguments and decide whether they are convincing. Probabilities among alternatives are a tool for making decisions when we have no additional information and no other tools.
An analogy: when a piece of meat is found lying in the street, you follow the majority of the stores. If most are kosher, you assume the piece is kosher, and if most are not kosher, you assume it is not kosher. But if the piece has a kosher seal on it, there is no logic at all in following chances and probabilities. The number of stores on each side makes no difference. And even if you have doubts about that particular certification, or perhaps it is forged, probabilities are still not the tool for dealing with that.
The fact that we are influenced by the environment we were born into is of course true, but there is no escaping that. So what can be done is to be aware of it and make decisions according to the best of our understanding. That’s what there is.
But still, even though we have other tools to deal with the question “which religion is the right one,” those tools are still not sufficient and leave us with a certain degree of uncertainty (did my intellect really lead me to the correct conclusion, or did it mislead me because of environmental influences?)—and at that point I’m asking to use probability, not instead of evidence and arguments but in addition to them. It’s clear to me that this argument is uncomfortable because it doesn’t rely on our intellect, but it’s not clear to me why it isn’t valid..
Two remarks about the argument, whether they were understood or not:
A. It is indeed true for every religion, but only for its believers. For us, as people born in Israel and in a religious environment, it does not apply with respect to Christianity, because our environment is not Christian.
B. The argument does indeed apply to every religion, but for example for Christians born in a Christian environment it is less strong, because the number of believers in Christianity is much larger, and therefore the probability of being born into it is also greater.