Q&A: Belief in the Jewish Religion
Belief in the Jewish Religion
Question
Hello, let’s say I start from the assumption that there is a God who created the world. Why is belief in the Jewish religion and its commandments, as it is formulated today (there are disputes, but in the end there is a basis that everyone agrees on), more logical than not believing? I’ll explain a bit more. Let’s say I believe that the story of the Exodus from Egypt happened with a fairly high probability, and then I believe that God gave us the Torah with a fairly high probability, and then I believe that the accepted interpretation of the Torah is correct with a high probability, and so on… In the end, even if each one of these is correct with high probability, when things are built one on top of another the probability drops significantly. For example, if the probability of each one is 90% and I have 10 such beliefs, then their combined probability is 0.34 = 10^0.9, which is already not such a high probability. So maybe it would be better to go back to the side that is less likely at the moment, but more likely when you look at all the implications that follow from it—which might be not to believe in the Jewish religion. I’d be glad to get an answer on this; I haven’t seen anyone talk about it. Thank you very much.
Answer
First of all, you are assuming independence between the events. But there is definitely dependence between them. Now add the probability of Christianity and Islam and the other religions. In the end, you have to compare all the possibilities and see which is most probable.
Note that any option you examine this way and break down into different components (while assuming independence) will be rejected outright. Nothing comes out reasonable in this kind of analysis.
You’re reminding me of the questions discussed in Column 145. Just like there, here too you do not have the full space of possibilities in front of you, and therefore your calculation is mistaken.