Q&A: Statistics and Miracle
Statistics and Miracle
Question
Hello Rabbi. I’d be glad to get a small clarification. Do statistical considerations necessarily serve as an alternative to a miracle? Does statistics assume in the background that the laws of nature are deterministic? In other words, suppose statistics says that one out of 1,000 people with a Book of Psalms in his pocket is saved, and we know that indeed there were 999 people with a Book of Psalms who died and one who was saved. Does the fact that he is the one who landed on the low statistical probability mean that it was not a miracle? After all, it could be that he was saved because the Holy One, blessed be He, chose to save him—unless, in the background, statistics assumes that he was saved for entirely natural reasons (location, movement, etc.), and everything depends on the starting point. Thank you.
Answer
Obviously, the statistical calculation itself proves nothing. Rather, the burden of proof is on the one claiming that a miracle occurred, and when there is a statistical calculation that offers a natural alternative, he has no proof for his claim.