Probabilistic quantitative truth

I'm currently reading a book by Eliezer Yudkowski that deals with rational thinking. Its main emphasis is on trying to avoid and pay attention to the biases we have. He touches on the point that we should look at the truth in a quantitative way of certainty and then choose what seems most reasonable to us (sounds obvious).
As a result, he avoids the phenomenon of assuming what is desired and then trying to rationalize it, but rather starts from the beginning and from there chooses the completely reasonable option.
My question is this, after your massive writing about why there is a very logical side to Judaism (the first book in the trilogy was amazing to me) do you think you rationalized the desired assumption? In your opinion, if you really start from 0, would you arrive at Judaism? (If somehow you have such a process in mind of arriving from 0, I would love to hear about it)