Question

I looked at the questions I asked about the doctrine of reward and punishment, and I saw that they can be phrased more precisely.
My question is this: in your opinion, is there a greater chance that the doctrine of reward and punishment exists than that it does not?
If yes/no — why?
If we have no way of knowing the answer, why aren’t the sources from the Sages enough to determine that it is more likely, and to take their tradition into account as being closer to the truth?
Thank you in advance.