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Q&A: A Fundamental Perplexity Regarding the Hostage Deal

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This is an English translation (via GPT-5.4). Read the original Hebrew version.

A Fundamental Perplexity Regarding the Hostage Deal

Question

Rabbi, it is very important to me to understand the complexity you advocate regarding the deal. I can understand what you are saying about the "mass psychosis," but I am still very troubled in light of the following:
The people we appointed to head the security services (the Chief of Staff and the heads of the Mossad and the Shin Bet, as well as Nitzan Alon and the Minister of Defense) think the deal should be signed and that from a security and diplomatic standpoint we can bear its cost. The information they possess is certainly deeper and broader than what we have, and there is no doubt that these are serious, patriotic people who have the good of the state at heart. It is also worth remembering several very important points:
(1) These people are the Prime Minister’s emissaries for the negotiations. He chose them for this task, and therefore he necessarily trusts them, their abilities, and their judgment.
(2) The deal that the heads of the security services are recommending was originally proposed by the Prime Minister himself at the beginning of the year.
(3) The Prime Minister has not presented organized reasons for his reversal on the deal. No alternative report has been published on his behalf, no significant discussions were held in the cabinet (unfortunately, the cabinet members are not the best people our country can provide), and there is no sign of a deep, professional decision-making process. The Prime Minister simply changed his mind and decided against the deal.
I therefore conclude that an ordinary rational person would choose to rely on the position that supports the deal. After all, we ourselves certainly cannot analyze the effects of particular actions such as holding the Philadelphi Corridor or entering Rafah and the like, and so it would seem proper to rely on the heads of the security establishment just as one relies on the fire commissioner or the central bank governor in their professional recommendations.
My question, then, is this: Why should a rational person not choose to stick with and support the position of the heads of the security establishment and trust them, even if personally and intuitively he is opposed to the deal?

Answer

I’ll answer briefly (relatively speaking).
I do not attach much importance to the opinion of “experts,” because I see their biases in the TV studios. They, like many others, are being swept away by the murky current of mass psychosis, and they mix value judgments with professional considerations. Values are perfectly legitimate, but they are not experts in values. I would bet that there is not one person in the universe who would tell us to stop the war were it not for the consideration of bringing back the hostages—that is, this is a dilemma between values and security/policy considerations. In that area they are not experts, and I have no trust in them at all.
Even if one can rely on the security judgment of those conducting the negotiations, they have no information about our diplomatic constraints. For example, the question whether later on we will be able to go back and retake the Philadelphi Corridor is not a military question. Of course we can, and any private could tell you that. The question is diplomatic: whether we will be allowed to do it. And on that they have no information whatsoever. Only Bibi has the full information.
I do not believe the reports that Bibi agreed to something; these are mere rumors, and all those in the know say the agreement was general and without getting into details. Just yesterday I heard a Channel 11 reporter saying that in Biden’s agreement there was not a word about Philadelphi.
In my view this is a sterile argument, because even if we withdrew from Philadelphi, Hamas would not return the captives, and certainly not all of them. This is the salami method. They keep announcing over and over that there will be no deal without a full withdrawal and a cessation of the fighting, with guarantees that it will not resume. Maybe they will return a few captives in exchange for a very heavy price, but there will always still be more captives there, because they are not idiots like us. And so it will go on forever: we keep giving things up to them in exchange for one more captive and one more murder.
The mass psychosis causes Hamas to oppose a deal and murder more captives. They see that the more they murder, the more they profit and the more they can break us from within. So why would they agree to a deal, and why wouldn’t they murder more hostages? So not only is this baseless, it is harmful and absurd. It is literally betrayal and cooperation with Hamas (of course not intentionally, but in practical effect there is a marvelous coalition and symbiosis between Hamas and the Kaplan brains and the hostage families). We are fighting among ourselves while Hamas sits there rubbing its hands in pleasure. There is no deal on the table at all, yet we are already falling apart from all the arguments.
I too have no trust in this government, and I have written that very sharply more than once. But there is no logic and no factual basis to the accusations that they do not want the hostages back and that they are messianic and are deliberately sabotaging a deal. There is no logic to that claim (because Bibi’s interest is to bring back hostages), and it has no factual basis whatsoever. Even the Americans say Hamas is the one torpedoing it, while Israel has repeatedly agreed. But facts play no role here. Yesterday Biden said that Bibi is not doing enough to bring back the hostages, and immediately everyone sees a contradiction with what Blinken said about two weeks ago—that Israel is agreeing and Hamas is the one obstructing it. But any sensible person understands that there is no contradiction at all. Israel is indeed agreeing and doing everything, but in Biden’s view it is not doing enough because he wants us to concede more. But that is his interest, not ours. We will pay the price for an unsuccessful gamble. The Americans only want quiet. We have already seen where the pursuit of quiet leads (including Bibi’s own pursuit of it).
Even if Bibi proposed a deal, as long as it was not signed and not agreed to by Hamas, he has the right and the duty to retract it if he sees that he made a mistake, or if he sees that Hamas is again raising demands and using the salami method. Negotiation 101 is that if I made an offer and you did not accept it, I withdraw my offer. Otherwise, that invites salami tactics. I make an offer, you refuse, and I do not withdraw it—then pressure builds on me to concede further, and so on and so on. Anyone beginning in negotiations knows that the way to avoid being trampled is to tell the other side: if you do not accept my offer, it is no longer on the table. We start over.
Everything I have written here is simple logic, and I do not see how one could disagree with it. The only reason people do not understand this on their own is the psychosis.

Discussion on Answer

Interested Party (2024-09-03)

More power to you!

Raphael (2024-09-03)

When the disengagement was carried out by Sharon, and when the Oslo Accords were signed by Rabin, did you also argue that only Sharon/Rabin had the full information, and that there is no such thing as security expertise, and that the demonstrations were mass psychosis?

An Honest Settler (2024-09-03)

Oslo and the disengagement were beneficial, and it was good that they were done.
The main problem was how people conducted themselves with those gifts afterward.

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