Are we 100% righteous and moral, such that we deserve 0 casualties and 0 hits?

As far as I know, I recently heard about a few Jews who fall into theft, slander, etc.

Wonderful. But at Soroka, of course, everyone was completely righteous and didn’t fail in anything, and therefore the Holy One, blessed be He, saved them.
A marvelous example of the wonder of tendentious and apologetic thinking. There’s excellent evidence for the thesis I happen to cherish, but refutations don’t count.

Everything you say, Michi, is fine when everyone is calm at the keyboard from the armchair, brainstorming—or maybe I’ll confuse you or you’ll confuse us. But in the actual moment of truth, when life and death are lying on the scales and a person is standing at a critical crossroads, making a decision with life and death in the balance—when it comes time to choose—I promise you, Michi, that the weight of all the posts and philosophical analyses drops to minus 50 degrees below zero. I’ll just give you an example from myself, and I’m sure any sane person who wants to live, and wants his family to live, would act like I did. More than that, it’s obvious to me that even you, with your theory that God has left the land, wouldn’t take the risk if, say, the child prodigy rabbi stood in front of you and said: if you stay in your house tonight, I guarantee that the missile will hit your house—you’ve been warned. You’d run like a rabbit with your children, even though in day-to-day life you scorn that kind of mysticism—you still wouldn’t take the chance.
Indeed, I live in Ramat Gan, and because I remembered Rabbi Zilberstein’s warning from the last elections against Carmel Shama, that because of the Sabbath desecrations of public transportation and the opening of malls, Ramat Gan would be struck by Iran—so besides fulfilling the instruction of “according to all that they instruct you” and voting as he directed, I fled with my whole family to Beit Shemesh and am enjoying a quiet life. If I had given any weight at all to all these philosophical musings and had stayed, apparently I’d maybe be sending you a WhatsApp from the grave, because I wouldn’t be here anymore, as happened to my neighbors in the building. You can also see that same letter from before the elections in the link I sent.
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1696698

Michi, I don’t know the calculations of Heaven. Presumably at Soroka too there are people who speak slander.

On the other hand, we know there are various strange and different calculations. For example, reincarnation of souls (accepted today by most religious rabbis), or all kinds of other things.

All in all, when you look at what’s been happening to the Jewish people over the last week, with hundreds of ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones being launched here, the results in practice really can point to providence.
You can’t explain it only by “good interception systems” or “everyone went into reinforced safe rooms.”

In practice, many dozens of missiles—serious missiles—hit here in the heart of populated areas without being intercepted, and a certain number of people don’t go into the safe rooms at all (look how many videos there are of every interception from people who, instead of taking cover, stand outside), and still all this adds up to 24 dead—which is heartbreaking, but it’s much less than what I’d guess was written in the reasonable scenarios (not the extreme ones) based on the logic of professionals.

Bottom line, regarding the missile launches from Iran/the Houthis/Hezbollah, I do see providence here. I don’t know how it actually happens, and why specifically at Soroka no one died, or why specifically in the missile issue you see more providence than in other areas, but in terms of the outcome it looks above nature.

To Michi,
What you’re claiming is: “If God intervenes, then the results should have been different (that there would be no hits at all, etc.).”
We say: “If God does not intervene, then the results should have been different.”
But the claims are not symmetrical. We are aware that not all the calculations of Heaven are handed over to us. On the other hand, you are aware that the laws of probability are handed over to us.

I thought Michi would give an evasive answer (especially about what I suggested to him in parentheses), something like: “I have no way of knowing what I’d do if I were in that situation in the future.” In the end he decided not to answer at all.
But what are you all agonizing over? Is it wisdom to write here from the keyboard, from the armchair, wearing a philosopher’s hat or any other hat? The blog and paper can absorb anything, as is well known. But let’s see what the person at the apex—the one on whom the hardest decision really rests, and maybe the most critical and historic one in the history of the state—says, when he sees the whole broad and inclusive picture, including classified things we don’t know, on the basis of which he has to make this Ben-Gurion-like decision (as Nahum Barnea put it), after spending 40 years fighting the whole world and his wife for what he defines as his life mission, seeing it as his mission. In the interview he gave to Ayala Hasson on Kan 11—just to remind you, a secular state channel, not some Haredi interviewer you can buy off, and so on—how does he express himself in a way that is totally uncharacteristic of him? (People always maybe add “with God’s help”; that too is nice conversational manners, but it still doesn’t show whether the speaker really stands behind it or whether it’s just slang.) At minute 12:45 of the interview—
(this is the most dramatic moment in the interview, but it’s obvious to me that the media and the rest of the gang, including all the shallow thinkers, won’t amplify it and will choose other headlines—anything but this—for obvious reasons, true to form)—it starts with Ayala asking him: there’s insane success and everyone wants to join the success! (And I’ll add that this includes Trump, who has recently expressed interest in the direction.) After he answers Ayala that of course the Mossad is doing its part exactly as it should and the IDF is doing its part, and both are doing wonderful work in extraordinary coordination, etc. etc., this is his wording, word for word: “Now, to do it today, in hindsight it looks obvious—of course you do it! It’s not like that. You know how I concluded that discussion?” Ayala asks, “Which one? The first? The last?” And he answers her: “When I pressed the button” (meaning the button to launch the operation last Thursday) “Well?” (asks Ayala) Answer: “That God should help us, because you need heavenly assistance….” And again he repeats: but you need heavenly assistance, because nobody knows how it will turn out. And interestingly, this is woven in among those carrying it out—I heard the same pair of words in an interview given by the squadron commander, that heavenly assistance is needed here. And I know what the scoffers and cynics will answer… or all the brainwashed people who, over the years, have trained themselves in abysmal hatred. They have no remedy and no chance of admitting it, as it says in Proverbs, “Though you grind a fool in a mortar…” But really, deep down, they understand that we are in a completely different event now, and the games and PR and attempts to impress someone or create headlines are over, and the words are being said from the heart, and words of truth are recognizable. Even his greatest haters in the Knesset (including Liberman) managed for a moment to put their hatred aside and not attribute all kinds of motives for some political gain or other side benefit, as has been their way for years, and even managed, against their nature, to offer some praise.
I’m sending you two links—the first link: the interview itself; and the second link: someone who was in the inner circle, who also describes, like a thread running through it all, how this was the recurring language the whole time before the decision was made and at the very moment itself, with hands raised to Heaven and prayer from the depths of the heart (as is the way of secular people always, in times of trouble, to remember the One who really moves things).
First link, the interview itself: https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/922886/
Second link: https://ch10.co.il/news/990342/

There’s another line of thought here that Ayala began to ask about, but in the end it got missed. On the one hand, same army, same technologies, etc. etc. etc.—and October 7; and on the other hand, the strike in Iran? Understand for yourselves the direction of the answer: “Not by power and not by might, but by My spirit.” Someone who does touch on this a bit is Yedidya Meir.
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1697273