Q&A: A Question in the Laws of Statistics
A Question in the Laws of Statistics
Question
Hello Rabbi Michi,
As someone who is completely hopeless at math [unfortunately], I have a question.
I know a young woman who has met with dozens of young men, certainly more than 40, and according to her there has never been a young man she thought met her requirements in terms of character traits, etc.—someone with whom she could build a home.
All the young men she met were from the Haredi sector, and they were young men who, on paper from the outset, were suitable for her [talent, outlook, …]. Let us assume that the pool of young men who were suitable on paper was 10,000 who could be considered.
Can one statistically calculate the chance that she will find one who suits her from this pool? Is it like tossing a coin, where after so many times, if again and again the coin falls on the same side, that teaches that the two sides are not equally weighted or that there is some other reason—and so here too should we conclude that if she does not change her positions, the chance of finding a young man who suits her exactly [when she insists on not giving in or being flexible] is almost zero? [And if so, could you calculate for me what her chances are (40 times out of a pool of 10,000)]? Or in psychology and emotions is each case like a new story, so that it is impossible to calculate the probability statistically? And if indeed so, does that mean that in psychology it is impossible to bring statistical data at all?
Best regards
Answer
Rabbi D., hello.
The question is not well defined on the mathematical level, because you need to define what it means that someone “is suitable for her.” Assuming there is only one out of the 10,000 such that if she meets him she will agree, one can calculate the probability that he was one of the 40 she met. But neither you nor I have such information, and therefore the calculation cannot be done. If you want to make a calculation, you need to give me more data. For example, how many out of the 10,000 she would be willing to marry if she met them. I assume you cannot know that.
One thing is clear: it would be worthwhile for her to examine herself carefully if 40 proposals that on their face seemed reasonable were rejected by her. For that, one does not need to be a mathematician. 🙂