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Q&A: Regarding Newcomb's experiment described in the book The Science of Freedom

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Regarding Newcomb's experiment described in the book The Science of Freedom

Question

Hi, a short while ago I finished reading your book The Science of Freedom and enjoyed it very much.
But, like a good Pole, there are a few points I didn’t agree with. And I’d be happy to hear your opinion—mainly about Newcomb’s experiment (pages 150–154).
In the book it is presented as proof that determinism cannot be true, or at least not determinism together with free choice. Because basically, if there is a prophet who already knows what you will do, then you have no free choice. (Since your future is determined by his prophecy.) And you broaden the argument and say that because there is no correct choice for a person with a “will,” a deterministic picture also cannot hold. But my claim is relevant even without that extension.
I want to disagree and say that nothing at all about free choice can be learned from Newcomb’s experiment (or even about determinism). Because the existence of the prophet is self-contradictory due to Turing’s halting problem. That’s all. But to get to the precise issue, I’ll elaborate:
After all, in mathematics and logic we often use non-existent “monsters” in order to learn about what does exist. For example, we say many things about a nondeterministic Turing machine even though in our world it does not exist. (Although it can be simulated but then the runtime grows exponentially, and therefore a “real” machine like that, with all its benefits, does not actually exist.)
But all that is only as long as there is no internal contradiction in the concept itself, however far it may be from reality. 
To reach the contradiction, let’s make 2 moves:
1] In our case there are 2 human beings, one chooser and one prophet. And in my view, already here there is a point that needs correction. Because if, say, I brought a cricket that chooses based on day/night, then there is no paradox here at all, and the immediate claim would be that I brought someone too stupid as the chooser, without the capacity to be a vessel for free choice—and that says nothing about everyone else. If so, why should the chooser be a human being? The conclusion is supposed to be about determinism in general. So why wouldn’t it be required that the chooser be as intelligent as possible for the paradox to hold, assuming it can hold in a deterministic world? If so, let’s replace the human being with a supercomputer with at least as many processors as the number of human neurons (not practical nowadays, of course).
2] But—and here comes the second stage—because of Turing’s “halting problem,” which explicitly applies to a supercomputer too, however powerful it may be, we know that there is no program that can determine for *every* other program whether it will halt. And following that there is Rice’s theorem, which says that any non-trivial property as well (like which box, for example) cannot be decided for *every* program.
And if your response is to bring a program that is simple enough, or to add a rule for the case such as a time limit, then again we return to the first move, because you have shown that that specific situation cannot support free choice—but who says that a more general situation could not support free choice, and how could you infer globally from that?
So in fact my claim is: from a certain level of automaton upward (a Turing machine), there is no longer any prophet, and therefore the experiment cannot take place as Newcomb describes it. So no conclusion about determinism and free choice—at least from this experiment—follows at all (either for or against).

Later in the chapter, you basically try to answer the contradiction and say that because “the information exists,” for example in brain scanners, therefore a prophet also exists in that deterministic world. But the “halting problem” actually says the opposite. There is information that you will never know how to get to in advance. Not from brain scanners and not from the electricity in the processor. Because the problem lies in predicting the algorithm itself, which is fully exposed to everyone. 

And a few more comments:

  • Human beings are like Turing machines, but they have drawbacks such as fatigue, and perhaps brain waves that can be predicted because of their inferiority, so I replaced them with a processor in order to reach the contradiction faster
  • The parable itself can still be useful for other conclusions, such as in game theory, since the conclusion there affects how a person should choose, and not whether fundamentally he has choice, because the prophet there could have a time machine. Which is not relevant here.
  • Interestingly, no one addressed the problem I’m raising, and even Wikipedia ignored it despite discussing free will in light of Newcomb’s experiment here. But I still found 2 people on the internet (here and here) who raised the same question I did… and at least there there were no answers that solved the difficulty, so I have some confidence that I’m not talking nonsense and wasting your time

What do you think? 

Thanks in advance, Yoni.
 
 

Answer

I’m not sure I understood the argument. If you are showing that there is no such prophet, that itself is the proof against determinism. You have proved that there is no possible entity that knows everything in advance (including the Holy One, blessed be He). That is exactly my argument. Moreover, a Turing machine has limitations by definition. So when you prove that there is no Turing machine that can do something, you have not proved that it is impossible to do it. Maybe there is a more sophisticated machine that could do it (a quantum computer?). Here the proof does not rely on the nature of the machine (the prophet), so it is more general.
You assume that human beings are like a Turing machine. That is the Church-Turing thesis. I do not agree with it.

Discussion on Answer

Yoni Vas (2024-05-26)

1] I’ll try to sharpen the point. In Newcomb’s time, that prophet could have had many mechanisms for guessing that were simply hard for us to implement: time travel, reading brain waves, etc. But over time we discovered that these things are undefined and/or take infinite time and/or are contradictory.

If this is about literal time travel, that creates the paradox of “I killed my grandfather.” And if, as I wrote above, the prophet is a Turing machine, then it cannot predict other Turing machines. (Agreed: if the Holy One, blessed be He, is a Turing machine, then He also cannot predict.)

So you can’t just introduce the concept of a “prophet” and use it to pose a difficulty for determinism, because who says the conclusion was correctly derived from the case / proof by contradiction, and that an internal contradiction didn’t sneak in instead (as for example if we introduced a prophet who travels back in time)? It’s very similar to those jokes that show how to prove that “1=2”… except along the way they assumed that it is permitted to divide by 0. Because a contradiction is like a virus—it infects every claim and conclusion.

Therefore my argument is the simple question: who is the prophet? And how did he predict in a finite, contradiction-free way? And if we assume he can, then let’s also assume that the chooser succeeded and chose the box with the million… (a sketch on the subject: https://youtu.be/Yv0oPXMIOyc?t=32)

And if there is no such prophet because the concept cannot be defined, and not because of our particular case, then there is no contradiction with free choice—at least not from this thought experiment. Because the contradiction with free choice arose from the prophet’s actions and abilities.

2] As for stronger automata that might solve the “halting problem,” everything I know of is not physically realizable. Therefore it is not relevant (since there is room for determinism to exist while they do not, as here on planet Earth). And regarding quantum and probabilistic Turing machines, as I understand it, that is exactly what Avi Wigderson got a prize for: showing that under certain assumptions (which seem reasonable), the complexities of problems BQP/BPP/PP are equal to P, so here too we are in the same situation. Of course, if in the end a stronger and actually existing automaton is discovered, then my argument will fall and the paradox will return.

3] And you really intrigued me when you said you think human beings are not Turing machines—are we less, more, or simply different because of something else, in your view?

Michi (2024-05-26)

You’re repeating the same thing. I answered.
In my estimation, we are not computational. More.

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