Answer

I think that here in Israel too there is a leftward bias in the polls, probably because of a lack of cooperation from right-wing voters. They do try to offset that, but apparently it doesn’t really work. But it’s important to remember that there is sampling error, and therefore when the situation is close, poll results don’t say all that much. Five million votes is, in my view, something like 3%, and that is definitely within the margin of error.
The reason for the victory seems quite clear to me: disgust with the combination of immigrants and Muslims together with queers and progressives. The American voter is fed up with the bullying of these groups, which is taking over the streets and the academy under the protection of the Democratic Party. People are fed up with the corruption of academia and the media. They are fed up with opening all the borders to anyone who wants to come. This is exactly Bibi’s secret, and that of other conservatives in the Western world. Until the left recovers and distances itself from the delusional extremes clinging to it, it has no future.