Q&A: Free Choice vs. the Laws of Statistics — How Does That Fit Together?
Originally published:
This is an English translation (via GPT-5.4). Read the original Hebrew version.
Free Choice vs. the Laws of Statistics — How Does That Fit Together?
Question
Hello Rabbi,
In many places you talk about the existence of free choice even when human behavior can be described statistically. I would be glad to understand your point better:
- If each individual's action converges to a fixed distribution (for example, 60% will choose A and 40% B), what makes the choice "free"? The very existence of a stable statistical law seems as though there is a deterministic mechanism hiding behind it that ensures the distribution will be preserved.
- At the macro level: the law of large numbers guarantees that as the sample grows, the average result will approach the expected value. If so, how is it possible for the totality of the "choices" of a large group truly to deviate from the probability written in advance? Doesn't that amount to a practical negation of the group's freedom?
In short: how do you carve out an authentic space for free choice, both for the individual and for the public, when a statistical distribution already exists in advance that predicts the outcome?
Thank you!
Answer
See column 539 and the references there.