Q&A: Follow the Majority
Follow the Majority
Question
Hello Rabbi. Rabbi Shimon Shkop, Gate 3 chapter 4, asks about 10 lottery tickets and the sale of nine of them. I would be grateful if the Rabbi could explain the “either way” argument to me. In addition, I’d be glad if the Rabbi could expand on the topic more broadly.
ֿThank you!
Answer
His claim throughout the entire chapter and section is that a majority that is present before us is not logical-statistical. He argues that whichever ticket wins, that goes against the majority; in other words, every outcome that occurs here is improbable. Therefore, even if you bought nine tickets, in the end only one of them will win, and the one that wins is the one that goes against the probability. That, of course, is not correct, and is quite straightforward. But he does have a correct intuition about the fact that a majority that is present before us is not statistical. I explained this in several columns here, and you are welcome to read them: mainly in column 79, and see also columns 226 and 237.